The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0257 GMT - Palm oil rises in Asian trading, tracking gains in soybean oil on the Chicago Board of Trade, says David Ng, trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Bargain hunting after recent weakness is also supporting prices, although high domestic inventories may continue to cap gains, he adds. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery is up 27 ringgit at 4,605 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0201 GMT - Higher minimum wages in Malaysia could raise labor costs for plantation companies, with a 2,000 ringgit monthly rate estimated to add around 110 ringgit a ton to crude palm oil production costs, UOB Kay Hian analyst Amerul Iqmal and team say in a note. The minimum wage rate is due to be announced in the Budget 2027 on Oct. 9, with 2,000 ringgit-2,200 ringgit being discussed as possible new rates, up from the current 1,700 ringgit a month. Smaller estates and smallholders could remain exempt, limiting their cost impact, they say. Higher wages could also accelerate mechanization as planters seek to improve worker productivity and offset rising costs. UOB KH maintains an overweight stance on Malaysia's plantation sector.(yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0134 GMT - Copper rises in early Asian trade. The base metals sector is being supported by the U.S. technology-stock rally and supply concerns, ANZ Research analysts say in a note. Copper is a major beneficiary of the artificial-intelligence investment boom, given the amount of metal used in data centers and electricity infrastructure, they add. There are also continuing supply-side issues, including lower copper production in Chile in August, they note. The three-month LME copper contract is up 0.2% at $14,443.00 a ton. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0008 GMT - Gold makes a subdued start in Asia as high bond yields offset pared-back rate-hike expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield touched another fresh high overnight, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing metals. However, that relationship can change when the risks behind those yields become more important than the income they offer, says GivTrade's Hassan Fawaz. Borrowing costs rising alongside worries about government finances and purchasing power can be a warning. If a cycle of higher refinancing costs and insufficient fiscal adjustment undermines investor confidence, gold could benefit as an asset that doesn't depend on a government's repayment promise. "The turning point comes when investors stop asking how much a bond pays and start asking why it needs to pay so much." Spot gold slips 0.1% to $4,134.92/ounce. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)
2310 GMT [Dow Jones]--If Rio Tinto can agree sales of stakes in its infrastructure assets on attractive terms, it "could demonstrate execution, improve balance-sheet flexibility and facilitate capital recycling," says Morgan Stanley. "However, value accretion would largely depend on the terms of sale," says MS. The bank views any deals as more of an incremental positive and says it doesn't change its underweight recommendation. "We ... do not see potential asset monetization as transformative to materially alter the outlook for enhanced shareholder returns," MS says. The bank thinks Rio Tinto's valuation is stretched and that it will face headwinds from an increasingly challenged iron-ore market and comparatively limited visible copper growth beyond the Oyu Tolgoi ramp-up. Australian shares in the miner are up 0.5% early in Sydney, at A$166.78. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
1957 GMT - Natural gas futures settled up 1% to $3.066 per mmBtu for the day, with analysts anticipating that this week's EIA storage report will show smaller-than-usual builds in natural gas storage. "Supplies continue tightening, evidenced by the last 8 EIA weekly storage reports printing smaller than normal builds," says NatGasWeather.com in a note. "The streak is expected to extend to 9-weeks after this Thursday's EIA report prints another smaller than 5-year average build." The EIA reported a 64 bcf build in inventory last week. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1817 GMT - CBOT wheat futures led the row crop complex higher throughout the day, driven by higher tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Specifically, other NATO countries are feeling the threat of the war spilling into their borders, with Germany's spy chief reported saying that the country is in "danger of becoming embroiled in a violent conflict with Russia." A continuation or escalation in the war means that logistics issues affecting Russian wheat are likely to remain a problem for world supply. "Russian grain exporters continue dealing with war-related logistical challenges," says Joe Davis of Futures International in a note. CBOT wheat rises 1.3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1712 GMT - This morning's flash sales data is supporting CBOT grain futures, according to Brady Huck of EmpowerAg Trading. He says confirmation of strong export demand are needed to push grain futures forward. "It's important we continue to see these posted," says Huck. "[The] Weekly Export Sales [report] as well as inspection data will be closely watched by traders to provide clues on demand." The flash notice said 129,540 metric tons of corn were sold to Mexico for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year, while 104,000 tons of soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for 2026/27 delivery. "Unknown destinations" is often a moniker for China in export sales notices. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1649 GMT - The U.S. harvest is seen as being behind its normal pace, due to excessive rainfall in much of the Corn Belt, says Tom Pawlicki of StoneX in a note. But that stretch of slower harvesting is expected to soon end, says Pawlicki. "Harvest delays have been significant across most states," he says. But most Corn Belt states are expected to receive an elongated period of dry conditions, allowing saturated fields to dry up and allow farmers to get back to work quickly. "Some fields remain soft or saturated, but most contacts expect combines to resume quickly, with soybeans generally taking priority before growers transition heavily into corn," says Pawlicki. CBOT corn rises 0.1%, soybeans climb 0.8%, and wheat is up 1.2%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1535 GMT - This Friday's WASDE report from the USDA is expected to provide new projections for U.S. corn and soybean crops. The context of what these mean for larger market dynamics may have shifted since the release of the USDA's quarterly stocks report last week. "The larger than expected stocks on last week's report make it more difficult for U.S. corn supplies to drop to 'tight' levels," says Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives in a note. In the case of soybeans, what the USDA projects on Friday may tell the story on how effective September rainfall was in reversing crop stress due to August heat, says Bergman. CBOT corn rises 0.2%, soybeans rise 0.9%, and wheat is up 1.4%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1516 GMT - The combination of Flávio Bolsonaro's surprise victory in the first round of Brazil's elections and the possibility of a Democratic sweep of the House of Representatives and Senate in the U.S. elections in November is seen as a source of support for markets, says Stephen Coltman of 21shares in a note. "Electoral politics are becoming impossible for investors to ignore," says Coltman. He also points out that rising bond yields in Europe carry the risk of "morphing into a credit contagion risk for euro zone sovereign bonds." Agricultural and precious metals futures are higher, as is the equity markets and base metals. Energy and cryptocurrencies are mixed in morning trade. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1441 GMT - CME live cattle futures are down 0.9% in morning trade, this after cattle slaughters landed at their third-largest weekly kill last week. Cattle slaughters jumped 64,000 head to 548,000 head for the week, which is the largest since early January, says AgResource in a note. The higher slaughter and its resulting effect on prices is something often seen at this time of the year, says the firm. "Typically, the market forges a seasonal low within the next 10 days and then strengthens into mid-November," says AgResource. Lean hog futures are up 1.1% in early trading.