Two More Reasons for Caution on Micron Stock

Dow Jones
Yesterday

Micron stock has languished this week despite blowout earnings as investors have worried over the cyclical nature of the chipmaking business and profit margins under pressure. But there are also more reasons for caution.

Micron stock was up 1% in premarket trading on Friday after a meager 3% gain on Thursday in the wake of the company's phenomenal earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday. Shares in Micron are up a mere 2% from Wednesday's open, before its earnings.

A lackluster performance comes despite a standout print for the chip maker and memory specialist, which has become a darling of the AI trade, with a beat-and-raise quarter and record sales growth.

Investor worries have centered on two main issues.

First, when the going is this good for chips, it may be time to start asking if the historically cyclical-for-stocks chipmaking industry is at its peak and getting ready to retrench gains.

Second, Micron's margins are just so good-87% in the last quarter-that when there are signs that margins will come under some pressure, the stock is just going to fall.

While Wall Street remains upbeat, there are other, more low-key reasons for caution.

While BNP Paribas analyst Karl Ackerman reiterated his Outperform rating on Micron after earnings, raising estimates and eyeing a price target on the stock of $1,700-compared to the $1,097 close on Thursday-he acknowledged the bear case.

"Bears may point to the potential de-specing of Nvidia's Rubin Ultra GPU or use of CXL in traditional server, which could alleviate supply tightness as capacity comes online," Ackerman wrote in a note.

Let's unpack those two reasons. If Nvidia's Rubin Ultra GPU "de-specs," then it may require less memory, reducing demand for Micron chips. Moreover, if the traditional server space relies more on CXL-Compute Express Link memory, essentially servers pooling resources-then demand for Micron chips could also cool in some cases.

While the caution on Micron is primarily centered around cyclical and margin issues, investors taking a second look at the stock may want to consider other possibilities-even as Wall Street remains overall bullish.

 

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