The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1343 ET [Dow Jones]--Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that the labor market has been steady, and the inflation side of the central bank's dual mandate is still where the problem is. In an interview with Fox Business, Goolsbee said there is "plenty of room for anything to be on the table" when asked about the need for future rate hikes. After reviewing the PCE August inflation report, Goolsbee said it wasn't great, but noted some earlier readings were revised to be a little bit more modest. When the Fed's September Summary of Economic Projections were released, Goolsbee said he seems to be one of the more optimistic people on the committee. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com )

1346 ET - Just how much to aggregate prices rise due to import tariffs? A Bank of Canada staff working paper answers by separating the simple decomposition into cost pass-through, markup adjustments and consumer substitution. So in Canada, a 25% counter-tariff on imports of U.S. goods raises the aggregate price by 0.66%, well below the 1.25% that direct cost pass-through alone would predict. The paper says the dominant offsetting force is customer substitution toward non-U.S. options, which reduces the price effect by 0.47 percentage point, plus markup adjustments that contribute a further 0.26 point decrease. The paper goes on to say the gap between cost pass-through and the true price effect widens sharply with the tariff rate. For instance, at a 50% tariff, cost pass-through alone predicts more than twice the true impact on prices. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1157 ET - One of crypto's bigger gainers right now is also one of its smallest market sectors, says Zach Pandl of Grayscale in a note. The AI Crypto Sector, or tokens that use AI tools as part of their blockchain platforms, posted gains that outshined larger peers - led by NEAR, which rose 183% in September, says Grayscale. Other tokens in the sector that posted big gains include Bittensor, World, and Venice - gaining as much as 70% for the month. Combined, the sector is worth roughly $15 billion, allowing for a lot of room for further growth. Last month was a strong one for cryptocurrencies as a whole, following the rally in flagship cryptocurrency bitcoin. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1144 ET - The respite from September payrolls was brief. Treasury yields resume their rise as markets turn attention to inflation data due in a couple of weeks. "For the Fed, the mediocre September jobs report isn't bad enough to shift the focus away from inflation," Fifth Third's Bill Adams writes. The October decision "will probably be swayed by the September CPI and PPI reports, geopolitical developments, and prices at the pump between now and then." Oil pares losses and Brent is back to $100. The 10-year rises to 5.252% from its intraday low of 5.155%. The two-year increases to 4.812% from 4.701%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1116 ET - Bitcoin prices briefly rose back to the level they topped out at in last week's surge, but appear to have met resistance and are now paring gains. Bitcoin is now up 1.6% to $85,938 for the day, after topping out at $87,090 earlier. Analysts have identified $87,000 as a key resistance point for bitcoin, with a sustained rally seen as possible if the token can cross over $90,000. Bitcoin has been able to maintain its current levels despite the surge seen in Treasury yields -- which is puzzling some analysts. "If a market is rallying on seemingly bad news, then there's something amiss," says James Stanley of StoneX in a note. Ethereum climbs 1%, and XRP is up 1.9%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1105 ET - Today's weaker-than-expected jobs report is bad news for the economy, even if it does lower the odds that the Fed will raise rates this month, eToro's Bret Kenwell says in a note. Lower rates may support markets in the near term, but a meaningful deterioration in hiring and income eventually pressures consumer spending and economic growth, he says. Inflation is still a problem, but a breakdown in the labor market would create an entirely different problem, Kenwell says. "Hoping for a weaker labor market just to secure easier financial conditions is a poor tradeoff," he says. (dean.seal@wsj.com)

1045 ET - An upshot of the September jobs report is that demand for labor is concentrated in industries that make stuff rather than services, LPL Financial's Jeffrey Roach says in a research note. August payrolls were supported by job creation in construction, manufacturing and healthcare, Roach says. The big suppressants of job growth were in the information, financial services and government sectors, he says. That's illustrative of the new economy in the AI era, according to Roach. There's strength in the goods-producing sectors that support the AI boom, and a negative impact to services-producing sectors that are feeling the sting of the technological change, Roach says. (dean.seal@wsj.com)

1033 ET - French government bonds are under pressure from global and domestic factors, driving borrowing costs to multidecade highs, Morgan Stanley strategists say in a note. Domestic pressures include concerns about a potential wider 2026 budget deficit, uncertainty around the approval of the 2027 budget in a deeply divided parliament, and political jitters ahead of the 2027 presidential election. In additions, higher global sovereign bond yields are also contributing to rising French government bond yields, the strategists say. Ten-year French sovereign bond yields last trade at 4.878%, having hit 4.994% earlier in the session, the highest since 2002, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1020 ET - Separatist movements in Canada may have only limited support but they can still create uncertainty that weighs on business confidence and distracts from other policy priorities, Morningstar DBRS's Travis Shaw argues. An Oct. 5 provincial election in Quebec may see the sovereigntist Parti Quebecois replace the current Coalition avenir Quebec government, while a nonbinding referendum in Alberta Oct. 19 will gauge support for a future binding vote on separation. Shaw sees a separation vote in either province as remote but says the debate is a source of uncertainty. Independence debates can carry economic costs, while any move toward separation would require complex negotiations and substantial fiscal commitments, Shaw adds. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

0949 ET - The September jobs report shows the labor market is still very much in low-hire, low-fire mode, Ken Mahoney of Mahoney Asset Management says in a note. Companies aren't adding many people, nor are they laying many workers off, he says. Many firms have already right-sized, and while AI may be taking a little off the edge of new hiring, it hasn't sparked a wave of firings, Mahoney says. The 12-month average gain going into the September report was only about 45,000 jobs monthly, so the September figure fits a slow trend more than a break in the economy, he says. (dean.seal@wsj.com)

0945 ET - The U.S. Federal Reserve is unlikely to increase interest rates in October after weak inflation data and jobs data released this week, ABN Amro's Rogier Quaedvlieg says. Data Friday showed the U.S. added 29,000 nonfarm payrolls in September, below the consensus forecast of 84,000 jobs by economists in a WSJ poll. The personal consumption expenditures price index data for August released this week also came in weaker than expected. The data removes the pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates in October, Quaedvlieg says. Markets expect a 20% chance of a Fed rate hike in October, down from an over 70% possibility priced in at the start of this week, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0942 ET - September's weaker-than-expected jobs report has decreased expectations that the Fed will hike in October, but that doesn't mean rate hikes are off the table completely for the rest of the year. This week, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed president John Williams suggested policymakers could take their time before deciding to raise interest rates again. However, on Thursday, Fed's Lorie Logan said policy needs to tighten further. "We think the upside risks to inflation are still a bigger concern for the Federal Reserve and expect they will raise rates at the end of the month," a note from Oxford Economics says.