Aussie housing market downturn on track toward generational fallThe housing market is nearing the largest downtown in four decades.3 min read

7NEWS

Oct 01

Australia’s housing downturn is on track to become the deepest of the past 40 years after a sixth straight month of nationwide declines.National property values plunged 1.1 per cent in September, ...

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I think this one’s quite sharp, clearly, but I’m not sure how short it’s going to be.”Several market economists have already forecast property prices to fall by between nine to 13 per cent, from peak to trough.But with more Reserve Bank rate rises a strong possibility and no cuts expected until at least late 2027, there’s a real risk the downturn could run even further, Lawless said.Be the first to know: Add 7NEWS as your preferred news source on GoogleThe Australian housing market has continued to fall with RBA rate rises pushing prices lower. Credit: AAPAs interest rates continue to climb, the downturn is not only deepening. It’s widening too.Over the three months to the end of September, 97 per cent of capital city suburbs were down in value.While the lower quartile of the market was holding up stronger in the early stages of the downturn, pockets of resistance were increasingly disappearing.“You could probably add to this broad-based downturn the fact that investors have become much less active than they used to be,” Lawless said.“And they do tend to be much more active around that middle-to-lower end of the market.”While rising interest rates were having a larger influence on prices, Labor’s curbs to investor tax breaks in the federal budget were also having an impact.“Once the dust finally settles, maybe around the middle of next year, then fresh home buyers will probably be in a situation where housing is more affordable and there’s less competition with investors,” Lawless said.“So on that framework, then yeah, I think the budget would have done what it set out to achieve.”The downturn has impacted all but three percent of suburbs in all capital cities, due in part to Labor’s curbs to investor tax breaks in the federal budget. Credit: AAPRisk of home price plunge ‘contained’Less than one per cent of borrowers are estimated to be facing negative equity despite soaring interest rates, the Reserve Bank of Australia says.Mortgage holders, whacked with a 25 basis point rate hike on Tuesday, are realistically capable of absorbing shocks to the market, the bank’s half-yearly Financial Stability Review said.Despite a steep six-month price decline, the bank reported most Australians have sufficient cash flow and savings to mitigate downturns.In fact, housing prices could fall 20 per cent from current levels and only around five per cent of mortgages would fall into negative equity, RBA modelling suggests.The deepest downturn predictions by mainstream economists, such as HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham, are around 13 per cent peak to trough.The RBA, however, believes that less than one per cent of borrowers will be facing negative equity after it rose rates by .25 per cent on Tuesday. Credit: AAPModelling based on Australia’s Prudential Regulation Authority and RBA numbers showed arrears rates generally remained low, and lenders have maintained high standards since the regulator instated a three per cent buffer.The post-pandemic house price run also meant the vast majority of owners have positive equity, the bank said.‘’In short, while there are pockets of stress in the household and business sectors, both sectors display a good level of resilience overall,’‘ it said.However, the RBA was not fearful there would be greater system-wide stress.‘’The risks associated from them remain contained, as far as the RBA is concerned,’‘ the report said.‘’Banks’ exposure remains limited, as they involve small companies and companies with little bank debt.’‘\nThe report comes after the RBA lifted interest rates forSmall business owners rage against new card surcharge ban2 min readWhy RBA keeps raising cash rate and how government ‘should’ act2 min read","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}