The latest Market Talks covering Equities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1130 GMT - Europe's Stoxx 600 is flat on its pre-U.S.-Iran war level--even as growth on the continent picks up--largely because of rising borrowing costs, Bank of America's Sebastian Raedler and Thomas Pearce write. The surge in 10-year Treasury yields--the discount rate for global equities--has dragged on the Stoxx 600, even as the continent's earnings-per-share jump, the analysts say. Despite strong growth, Bank of America is negative on European equities given the risks of a slowing AI buildout, high energy costs and higher-still borrowing rates, they say. The Stoxx 600 could fall as much as 10% if risk factors combine, they say. The index rises 0.8%, and is up 6.7% for the year. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)
1121 GMT - Filtronic's largest-ever order is a sign of its exceptional operational progress this year, Berenberg analysts write. The defense and aerospace telecom company secured a $68.1 million follow-on order from Elon Musk's SpaceX to provide high-frequency telecom technology. "This record order is a strong endorsement of the relationship with SpaceX, and of Filtronic's ability to meet SpaceX's quality demands and pace of production," the analysts say. Though shares have pulled back from their highs in May, Berenberg sees significant upside with a buy rating on the stock and 440 pence price target. Filtronic shares are up 6% at 273 pence.(joseph.wilkins@wsj.com)
1121 GMT - Close Brothers Group reported some progress on its fiscal 2026 strategy, with a positive surprise on costs, UBS analysts Sanjena Dadawala and Jason Napier write. Cost savings in the fiscal year to the end of July accelerated, the analysts note. Loan growth is key to the merchant bank's recovery, they add, with fiscal 2027 guidance for between 5% and 10% underlying loan growth. UBS expects return on tangible equity to recover slightly in fiscal 2027, with further growth in fiscal 2028 to around 8.5%. "We think it takes the firm 1-2 years more to reach double digits but valuations do not reflect even that," the analysts say. Shares are down 0.5%. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)
1048 GMT - The physical cocoa market is likely less prepared for a supply shortage than in 2023-2024, when supply tightness prompted a five-fold rise in cocoa prices, Goldman Sachs analysts write. A potentially record-breaking El Nino raises the risk of a poor West African crop, they say. Inventories will likely be lower than 2023-2024, while demand destruction has already occurred--giving the market less slack to absorb a supply crunch, they say. However, prices likely won't hit 2024 highs of around $12,000 a metric ton this time. Better market liquidity means similar price spikes are less likely, the analysts say. Cocoa contracts rise 1.8% to $5,477 a metric ton in New York. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)
1039 GMT - Liontrust Asset Management's deal to buy Hawksmoor Investment Management's fund management and model portfolio services assets is strategically advantageous, Cavendish's Jens Ehrenberg writes. Cavendish raises its current-year earnings per share forecast by around 2% following the acquisition. It expects upgrades between 8.2% and 8.5% in the outer years. The deal adds a high-quality product that can benefit from Liontrust's distribution capabilities, the analyst notes. Cavendish raises Liontrust's target price to 450 pence from 436 pence and reiterates a buy recommendation. Shares are up 0.7% at 295.50 pence. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)
1013 GMT - Wise Group seems to have done well in establishing itself among U.S. investors, J.P. Morgan's Craig McDowell and Sandeep Deshpande say. The analysts had previously been concerned that the fintech company would struggle to gain traction in the U.S. "We remain very optimistic on the long-term opportunity for Wise, with the view that the business has the potential to be a durable earnings compounder with attractive long-term earnings power," JPM says. However, there is a lack of confidence on the near and medium-term outlook, as well as high near-term multiples, the analysts note. This could prompt investor caution, JPM adds. Shares are up 1.9%. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)
1009 GMT - The downturn in the gambling industry looks set to continue, driven by regulatory uncertainty, higher taxes and prediction-markets competition, Baader analysts write. "As the markets mature, the easiest customers have already been acquired and competition for higher-value customers is getting tougher," the analysts say. U.K. taxes are already pressuring margins, while the October Budget adds further retail risk, they say, adding that the U.S. faces intense competition from the prediction-market sector. Most names are down sharply across different markets and business models, and this looks like an industry-wide shock wave, Baader says. "We do not expect this pressure to ease quickly," they say. Entain shares are up 1.75%, but down 45% over the year-to-date, while Flutter shares are down 64% year to date. (joseph.wilkins@wsj.com)
1004 GMT - Glencore could beat its new marketing unit forecast this year given the current environment, RBC analyst Ben Davis writes. He cites volatility, supply chain disruption and refining margins. The miner and commodity trader raised its guidance for marketing adjusted EBIT this year to over $5 billion compared with previous guidance of around $4.9 billion. It also raised its longer-term guidance for the metric to between $2.8 billion and $4.2 billion from $2.3 billion to $3.5 billion. RBC estimates 2026 marketing EBIT of $5.4 billion compared with consensus of $5.18 billion. Davis adds that the more important driver for the stock is the multiple attached to a trading business. RBC has an outperform rating on the stock and 660 pence target price. Shares are up 1.7% at 554.50 pence, and 38% higher over the year-to-date. (ian.walker@wsj.com)
0949 GMT - Julius Baer Gruppe's new buyback program is another positive signal, J.P. Morgan's Amit Ranjan and Kian Abouhossein write. The announcement of an up to 600 million Swiss franc ($722.1 million) buyback by the Swiss bank, which will be completed within one year, adds to recent news of the end of enforcement proceedings by the Swiss regulator. JPM says the new target CET1 capital ratio of 15% is intended to give more confidence to stakeholders, citing a meeting with Chief Executive Officer Stefan Bollinger and Chief Financial Officer Peter Burrill. The revised dividend payout range also provides more flexibility, JPM notes. Shares are up 2.5%. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)
0945 GMT - Fresenius's acquisition of full ownership of mAbxience for up to 750 million euros is positive, as it gives the German healthcare group greater exposure to a growing market, Citi analysts write in a research note. "In our view, the acquisition should bolster Fresenius' burgeoning position in the biosimilars market by equipping it with vertically integrated supply chain, which is a clear positive," Citi says. The deal gives Fresenius full ownership of a platform in biosimilars--copycat versions of biologic drugs--from research through manufacturing to commercialization, the analysts say. Since Fresenius already owned 55% of mAbxience and had an option over the rest, the acquisition shouldn't come as a surprise, they add. Shares fall 0.6%. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)
0934 GMT - Sanofi and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' potential successors to blockbuster medicine Dupixent might lag behind rival drugs Pfizer and AbbVie are developing, Citi analysts say in a research note. The new experimental drugs Sanofi and Regeneron will jointly develop under their alliance focus solely on extending the dosing interval of Dupixent without compromising efficacy or tolerability, but there is no expectation of a superior performance, Citi says. This suggests those medicines might struggle to compete with Pfizer's tilrekimig and AbbVie's zumilokibart, both of which have shown potential for better efficacy in midstage trials, according to Citi. Moreover, it might be challenging for Sanofi and Regeneron to get reimbursement for those drugs from healthcare payers after copycat versions of Dupixent become available, the analysts add. Sanofi shares fall 3.4%. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)
0930 GMT - A buzzy new aperitif should have offered a boost to Campari's U.S. sales over the summer, Bernstein analysts say ahead of the Italian drinks group's third-quarter earnings report later this month. Sarti Rosa, a sweeter aperitif than Campari's namesake bitters and its mainstay Aperol, was launched with a big pink splash in the U.S. in June, as Campari looks to keep cashing in on the popularity of spritz cocktails, especially in the summer months. That should skew the company's 2H net sales growth in North America toward 3Q, Bernstein expects. The brokerage nudges up its earnings expectations for Campari for the year, keeping an outperform rating and a 10.80-euro target on the Milan-listed stock. Shares are up 0.9% at 6.07 euros.