The latest Market Talks covering Financial Services. Exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

0756 GMT - IG Group Holdings' lower 2026 guidance is driven by lower over-the-counter income retention and a weaker market backdrop, RBC Capital Markets' Ben Bathurst says. The online trading platform's new 2026 revenue guidance suggests earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization between 490 million and 500 million pounds, RBC says, which would be 16% lower than the Canadian bank's estimates. "A lower than expected revenue retention rate of 70% for OTC business also looks to have been a material driver of the miss, but we note revenues would have been below our expectations irrespective of this, as there was an implicit 16% miss on non OTC revenues," the analyst adds. The lower retention follows a recent decision to hedge less of the OTC book, RBC added. Shares are down 22%. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0711 GMT - Bitcoin stays elevated after reaching a one-week high earlier as U.S. interest-rate rise expectations ease, boosting risky assets. Federal Reserve governor Philip Jefferson said the Fed might need more time to assess the direction of the economy before making any additional policy adjustments. The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report at 1230 GMT will be closely monitored for clues on future policy. Stronger-than-expected jobs data could push Treasury yields and the dollar higher, potentially weakening bitcoin, Zaye Capital Markets analyst Naeem Aslam says in a note. "Softer labor data could reduce expectations for further tightening, weaken yields and improve the environment for renewed [bitcoin] exchange traded fund inflows." Bitcoin rises 1.6% after reaching as high as $86,807 earlier, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0709 GMT - Commerzbank doesn't have enough share price upside to compensate for higher risks and less visibility from UniCredit's plans for the German bank, RBC Capital Markets' Anke Reingen and Sherry Lin write. The acquisition of UniCredit's German unit HVB by Commerzbank would be a "sensible move", RBC says, with a potential return on investment of 11% by 2030. Commerzbank's CEO has said the lender could potentially buy HVB in shares as one of several options to increase UC's holding in Commerzbank. However, execution risks in this complex setup are heavily concentrated in Commerzbank. As a result, lower earnings visibility and higher cost of equity have led RBC to cut its price target on Commerzbank stock to 40 euros from 43 euros. RBC lowers its recommendation to sector perform from outperform. Commerzbank shares closed at 39.40 euros on Thursday. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0221 GMT - Indonesia's near-term market outlook could be supported by three market-friendly developments, although key overhangs remain, BofA analysts Kai Wei Ang and Rahul Bajoria say in a note. Two technocratic deputy finance ministers were appointed, easing concerns over policy continuity following the cabinet reshuffle, they say. September headline inflation and core inflation were both on track with Bank Indonesia's end-2026 forecasts. The trade surplus also rebounded to $3.5 billion in August from $121.9 million in July and is expected to remain above $1 billion in coming months, they say. However, the analysts continues to monitor potential updates from credit-rating agencies and MSCI-related developments. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

2258 GMT [Dow Jones]--One of the best starts to a hurricane season in North America prompts Macquarie to upgrade QBE Insurance to outperform, from neutral. Macquarie is also upbeat about the prospect of another share buyback when QBE updates on trading update in November. "QBE is currently trading at a 4.0% discount to weighted international peers on a 2-year forward PE," Macquarie says. That compares with a 3.7% three-year average premium. Macquarie raises its price target on QBE by 12% to A$26.20/share. QBE ended Thursday at A$22.85. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1315 GMT - RBC Capital Markets lowers Banco Santander's net interest income and fees forecasts and raises restructuring charge estimates for 2028, analyst Benjamin Toms writes. RBC reduces its target price on the stock to 13.25 euros from 13.50 previously, but reiterates its outperform recommendation. The Canadian bank lowers its 2028 adjusted pretax profit estimate for Santander by 2%, driven by a fall in Chile net interest income, along with lower revenue and higher costs in the rest of the group. This is partially offset by the Brazilian and Spanish divisions. RBC's 2028 estimate for reported return on tangible equity of 19.9% compares with Santander's guidance of over 20%. Shares are down 1.5% at 12.14 euros. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

1131 GMT - Citi boosts its 12-month bitcoin target price to $113,000 from $82,000 as debasement fears return to markets. Renewed investor concern that high government deficits could erode the value of fiat currencies is one reason behind the shift in thinking. Regulatory clarity is another. "Paradoxically, the failure of the Clarity Act which spurred agency rulemaking, helped crypto regain technical levels," the analysts say. Citi adds that ETF inflows should be relatively sticky and consistent as investors gradually adopt bitcoin into portfolios. Bitcoin is 0.2% higher at $83,898. (joseph.wilkins@wsj.com)

0906 GMT - Ether's exchange-traded fund picture is cooling, not collapsing, after an inflow streak came to an end, Zaye Capital Markets' chief investment officer, Naeem Aslam, writes. "Institutional participation remains substantial rather than disappearing," he says. U.S. spot ether ETFs recorded net outflows of $2.8 million on Tuesday. The move broke a seven-day inflow streak totaling over $850 million. "Consistent ETF buying helps absorb available ether supply in the spot market and can provide a structural support layer when speculative activity weakens," he adds. Ether is up 0.15% at $2,685. (joseph.wilkins@wsj.com)

0855 GMT - CaixaBank faces a near-term headwind to net interest income, which should be temporary, while artificial intelligence disruption will be a gradual process, UBS' Ignacio Cerezo and Alvaro Fernandez-Garayzabal write. The Spanish bank's share price has weakened recently due to short-term net interest income uncertainty and fears about deposit margins due to the AI threat. The bank will face a temporary drag in the second half of 2026 as liabilities reprice faster than assets, but increased deposit competition remains the main bottom-up risk. Investors also fear CaixaBank's deposits may be challenged by the rise of AI agents. "Having a definitive view about AI-led changes remains challenging, but we still see this as a gradual, rather than a fast-paced, process," UBS notes. Shares are down 3.2%.