Eurozone Inflation Jumps to Three-Year High on Sharper Energy Costs

Dow Jones
5 hours ago
 
 

Inflation in the eurozone rose to its highest level in three years last month, driven by accelerating energy prices, although a recent jump in government bond yields may make the European Central Bank wary of lifting its key interest rate again.

Consumer prices were 3.8% higher in September than the same month of last year, up from an annual rate of inflation of 3.2% in August, the European Union's statistics office Eurostat said Friday. That was the fastest rise in prices since September 2023.

The inflation rate was higher than the 3.6% expected by economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal, although that poll was taken before a string of higher-than-expected readings this week from eurozone members including France and Italy.

Escalating military action in the Middle East sent Brent crude oil above $105 a barrel at points in September. As Europe gears up for winter, prices of natural gas have also risen.

Eurostat said consumer prices for energy were up 18.8% on the year, nearing the sharpest rise since 2022, when Russia stopped supplies of natural gas in an effort to weaken Europe's support for Ukraine in the wake of the full-scale invasion.

The ECB in September raised its key interest rate for the second time this year to 2.5%, saying that it couldn't ignore the jump in energy prices. Inflation has been above the ECB's 2% target since March.

Nevertheless, there is little sign that those prices are bleeding into other parts of the economy, which policymakers fear would provoke a more persistent period of inflation.

Core inflation, which strips out more volatile energy and food prices, edged up to 2.5% from 2.4% in August.

"While the shock is too large to look through, we view a measured response as appropriate to keep inflation in check," ECB President Christine Lagarde told EU lawmakers on Monday.

Lagarde also noted that higher yields on longer-term sovereign bonds will slow growth and cool inflation without the bank having to raise rates. Yields on French bonds have surged in recent days on doubts about the government's ability to narrow its large budget deficit, with some signs of spillovers to other highly-indebted governments in the currency area.

"The rise in long-term interest rates will slow growth and reduce the pass-through of the energy shock to other prices and wages," said Olli Rehn, governor of the Bank of Finland, in a speech Friday.

Investors expect at least two rate increases by July next year, though most anticipate rate setters to stand pat when they next meet on Oct. 29.

However, there is little doubt of the need to remain vigilant to guard against unexpectedly strong inflation. Input costs and output prices in the eurozone's manufacturing sector quickened for the first time since May, survey data from purchasing managers said Thursday.

That will "fuel speculation about additional rate hikes from the ECB", said Chris Williamson, economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, which conducted the survey.

On the other hand, the central bank's policymakers, including President Lagarde this week, have reiterated that there are no signs wage pressures have increased as a result of climbing energy prices. Inflation in the labor-intensive services sector was 3.2%, from 3.0% in August.

Still, data published this week showed the eurozone's labor market remains historically tight, and some economists say labor shortages in Germany could in particular threaten a higher bout of inflation.

 
 

At the request of the copyright holder, you need to log in to view this content

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10