France's Budget Offers Little Relief for Bond Markets

Dow Jones
Yesterday

1427 GMT - France's 2027 budget should curb the deficit but will do little to stabilize public debt, while political uncertainty threatens to keep bond markets under pressure, ING analysts say in a note. The 43 billion-euro package aims to reduce the deficit to 5% of GDP, from 5.4% in 2026. But debt is projected to rise to 121.7% of GDP. ING expects a modified budget to pass, potentially bypassing a parliamentary vote. Meanwhile, French-German bond spreads--which currently trade at 135.90 basis points--could widen amid fiscal and political concerns. "We see spreads remaining in a range well above the 100 basis-point level--more likely testing levels towards 150bp." The ECB is unlikely to intervene, but could if turmoil spreads beyond France, the analysts say.

 

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