0308 GMT - Australia's August household spending data includes positive signals for shares of companies, including car dealer Eagers Automotive, Morgans analysts say. They point out that transport was the strongest spending category for the month. While this includes fuel, they tell clients in a note that sales of new vehicles also contributed, supported by demand for electric vehicles. Elsewhere, they see consumers still willing to spend on food, hotels, cafes and restaurants. They see this as positive for fast-food store operators Collins Foods and Guzman Y Gomez and supermarket operators Woolworths and Coles. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
0220 GMT - Codan's second-half outlook for its communications division looks potentially conservative to UBS analysts. While they maintain a neutral rating on the technology hardware supplier, the investment bank's analysts think that the second-half outlook implied by its annual divisional growth guide assumes there will be no new conflict-related contract wins over the balance of the year. They tell clients in a note that this take seems conservative and that they see substantial upside to Codan's guidance for 30%-40% revenue growth at its communications business. UBS lifts its target price 43% to 68.50 Australian dollars. Shares are up 0.6% at A$66.20. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
0220 GMT - After Lynas Rare Earths' planned takeover of Meteoric Resources, Euroz Hartleys wonders: "How long will VMM [Viridis Mining] last from here?" Viridis's Colossus project neighbors the Caldeira project owned by Meteoric, which is being acquired by Lynas in a 968 million Australian dollars deal. Assuming equal treatment for Viridis implies a value of greater than A$5.00/share, the broker says. Viridis shares surge by 16% to A$3.87. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0158 GMT - Lynas Rare Earths' planned acquisition of Meteoric Resources is "a decent deal" for Lynas, says Ord Minnett. "It adds a massive resource offering strategic options," the broker says. In the near term, the all-share deal is dilutionary for Lynas and adds some permitting risk, Ord Minnett says. Its net asset value on Lynas goes to A$7.10/share from A$7.60/share. The broker has a "lighten" rating and a A$14.00/share price target on Lynas, both of which are under review pending a detailed assessment of the acquisition, it says. Shares are down 5.7% at A$13.04. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0116 GMT - Australian business lending will prove more durable for major banks than the market expects, UBS analysts reckon. Parsing regulators' industry data, the analysts observe that business lending continued to grow strongly in August despite an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop, outpacing housing lending. They tell clients in a note that Commonwealth Bank and ANZ were the strongest of the majors in business lending, with the former capturing 28% of flow. ANZ captured 15% and regional lenders grew above the majors in business lending, they add. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
0102 GMT - Macquarie investors are already paying for a substantial portion of the Australian financial-services provider's superior franchise and growth optionality, UBS analysts say. They acknowledge that earnings risks remain positively skewed as it prepares to change CEO, but observe that the stock is already trading at elevated historical multiples. Going forward, they think that investors will be increasingly focused on Macquarie's ability to further improve operating leverage view. They wonder if new CEO Greg Ward can genuinely make Macquarie more competitive on costs. UBS keeps a neutral rating on the stock and lifts its target price 6.0% to 265.00 Australian dollars. Shares are down 0.1% at A$245.78. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
0046 GMT - RBC Capital Markets sees a big positive in Transurban's A$4.5 billion acquisition of Canada Pension Plan Investment Board's stake in companies that own the Westlink M7, NorthConnex and WestConnex highways in Sydney. Analyst Owen Birrell says a criticism of Transurban following its FY26 result was the lack of incremental portfolio growth over the medium term, in excess of underlying traffic growth and inflation-linked toll rates. "If the transaction closes, then we could potentially estimate an 8% uplift in proportional earnings through FY27-28, and the potential for improved distributable free cash flows and ultimately distributions," RBC says. Transurban is down 1.2% at A$13.08. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
0039 GMT - The strength of Aristocrat Leisure's balance sheet prompts Morgans analyst Leo Partridge to raise his forecasts for the likely scale of the slots maker's FY 2027 buybacks. Partridge now anticipates additional buybacks of 500 million Australian dollars across the fiscal year, compared with his prior forecast of A$300 million. He tells clients in a note that the Australian company retains significant balance-sheet capacity for M&A and buybacks, even after completing about A$1.9 billion of its current A$2.5 billion on-market buyback program. Morgans keeps an accumulate rating on the stock and trims its target price 1.4% to A$69.00. Shares are down 1.3% at A$58.73. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
0031 GMT - Alcidion's new contract within the U.K. National Health Service is seen by Bell Potter as validating the healthcare software provider's 2021 ExtraMed acquisition. Analyst Thomas Wakim says in a note that the contract upgrades the NHS body's existing ExtraMed product, reinforcing the value proposition of Alcidion's internally developed product in the U.K. market. With an unchanged buy rating on the stock, Wakim points out that there is further upside potential if additional contract options are executed. Bell Potter holds its target price at 0.15 Australian dollars. Shares are flat at A$0.11. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
2343 GMT - The rise in long bond expectations has ended a short-term trade where investors rotated into infrastructure stocks, viewing them as a safer bet than other assets. RBC Capital Markets says market concerns now reflect global macro uncertainty and longer-term inflation concerns. It notes the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is above 5% for the first time since 2007. As a result, infrastructure stock valuations have begun to fall. RBC moves to reset its yield forecasts, driving cuts to price targets for six infrastructure stocks in Australia and New Zealand. They include a 20% fall in RBC's price target for Atlas Arteria to A$3.60/share, and a 13% decline for Infratil to NZ$13.75/share. Atlas Arteria ended Wednesday at A$3.95. Infratil is down 2.1% at NZ$13.86 early on Thursday.(david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
2338 GMT -- Macquarie retains an outperform call on Amplitude Energy following its decision to advance the East Coast Supply Project in Australia. Still, it thinks investors may want to see results from drilling the Nestor natural-gas prospect and progress in development work before factoring in the full value of the project. "We have risked Nestor at 50% for now," Macquarie says. Amplitude says there's an 81% chance of geological success at Nestor. Macquarie notes there was a 84% probability applied to the Juliet prospect with similar characteristics to Nestor. Juliet was a natural-gas discovery, and flow testing has shown a reservoir of excellent quality. Macquarie retains an outperform call on Amplitude and A$2.50/share price target. Amplitude ended Wednesday at A$1.735. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
2318 GMT - A more than 20% fall in the share price of Imricor Medical Systems since it entered the ASX 300 index in early September creates a great buying opportunity for investors, according to its bull at Morgans. Imricor ended Wednesday at A$1.585, having traded as high as A$2.07 in August. Morgans suggests seasonal weakness and rising interest rates may have contributed to the share-price fall. Recent news flow has been positive. "As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year, together with our view that material news flow (NorthStar orders, submit clinical data, FDA approval) is expected, we believe the share price should move back over A$2.00," Morgans' analyst Scott Power says. Morgans has a speculative buy call on Imricor. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
2302 GMT -- Investors are likely to become more bullish about Amplitude Energy's cash flow outlook as the East Coast Supply Project advances, signals Ord Minnett. Amplitude's decision to proceed with the ECSP follows success with the Juliet-1 well. Analyst Tim Elder views Amplitude's plan to drill the Nestor prospect as a sound decision because it makes best use of the available Transocean Equinox rig. The developments materially derisk Ord Minnett's forecast for 57% production growth by FY30. "We expect this should encourage investors to look more favorably on Amplitude's capacity to significantly grow free cash flow by FY29-30, even if there are some near-term risks to exploration (i.e. Nestor) and net debt will increase to A$300 million in FY27," Ord Minnett says.