Asian Bond Yields, Oil Prices Climb as U.S.-Iran Talks Stall

Dow Jones
Sep 28
 
 

Asian bond yields and crude prices resumed their climb Monday as U.S.-Iran talks hit a wall after President Trump rejected Tehran's latest proposal for a seven-day ceasefire.

Iran's offer aimed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear talks in return for lifting the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. But Trump was skeptical that Tehran would meet his demands and told staff that he sees a renewed bombing campaign after the November midterms in the U.S. as likely, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday, citing U.S. officials.

"The rise in oil prices alongside higher long-term yields suggests markets are attaching a larger inflation risk to the global outlook," said Lloyd Chan, senior currency analyst at MUFG. He noted that yields remain materially higher in Japan, Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines.

Japanese government bond yields stayed elevated Monday, with the 10-year yield up 2.3 basis points at 3.090%, according to FactSet data. The 10-year Australian sovereign securities yield rose 5.3 basis points to 5.212%, while New Zealand's 10-year yield rose 2.0 basis point to 5.131%.

Oil futures jumped with front-month WTI up 2.2% at $94.41 a barrel and Brent 3.2% higher at $107.67 a barrel.

"We still expect oil prices to decline, but the path lower is likely to be more gradual as the endgame of the U.S.-Iran conflict becomes increasingly difficult to predict," OCBC Group Research strategists wrote a note.

OCBC raised its end-2026 Brent forecast to $85 a barrel from $80 previously, as the risk of renewed escalation remains high.

Spot prices for precious metals fell, with gold slipping below $4,200 a troy ounce to last trade 2.4% lower, and silver shedding 4.0% to $61.69.

Rising yields and a strong U.S. dollar will keep the macro backdrop challenging for gold, according to ANZ Research. Higher oil prices and U.S. data have also reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to keep rates higher for longer, dimming the appeal of non-yielding assets.

Asia-Pacific equities started the week broadly lower, reflecting the cautious sentiment.

Japan's Nikkei Stock Average dropped 0.3%, while South Korea's Kospi fell 2.5%, weighed by losses in chip stocks. Samsung Electronics shed 4.55% and SK Hynix declined 4.6%.

China's Shanghai Composite Index was trading 1.9% lower while the Shenzhen Composite Index tumbled 3.2% after data showed that industrial profit growth cooled sharply.

Asian currencies stayed under pressure as the prospects of a prolonged oil crisis dampened risk sentiment.

The global backdrop is challenging for regional currencies as well, with external shocks testing "uneven" regional buffers, MUFG's Chan said.

"U.S. yields have risen faster than local yields across several Asian markets, widening the U.S. yield advantage and weakening relative rate support for regional currencies," Chan said.

The U.S. dollar was recently up 0.3% at 157.73 yen, and 0.3% higher at 1,361.60 won.

 
 

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