U.S. Treasury Yields Hover Close to Multiyear Highs

Dow Jones
Sep 24
 
 

U.S. Treasury yields edged higher, hovering close to multiyear highs, while eurozone and U.K. government bond yields rose in European trade, as selling resumed following tentative calm in Asian trade.

Treasurys were massively sold in the U.S. trading hours, with yields rising 10-15 basis points. The selloff was initially in line with moves in eurozone government bond yields, but accelerated following a better-than-expected U.S. purchasing managers' data for September.

The 10-year Treasury yield, which hit a 19-year high of 5.14% on Wednesday, last traded up 0.6 basis points at 5.119%, according to Tradeweb. The 30-year yield, which rose to 5.415% on Wednesday, last traded 1.3 basis points higher at 5.414%.

"Rates are once again at the forefront of investor concerns, as long-term U.S. Treasury yields consolidate around or above the 5% threshold--a level that carries significant psychological weight for the markets," Raphael Thuin, head of capital markets strategies at Tikehau Capital, said in a note.

"The key question is whether this upward trend can continue and, even more importantly, whether financial markets and the economy as a whole can coexist with higher interest rates for the foreseeable future," he said.

European bond yields began the day higher too. The 10-year German Bund yield rose 1.5 basis points to 3.549%, while the 10-year U.K. gilt yield was up 2.1 basis points at 5.340%.

Weak demand at Wednesday's auction of five-year Treasury notes also contributed to selling in Treasurys. The five-year notes sold on Wednesday at a yield of 5.033%, the highest since an auction held in June 2006, which had a high yield of 5.203%. In addition, Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said further rate increases are likely needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion.

Jefferies' global economist Mohit Kumar said "stop outs and position unwinds" were a major feature of Wednesday's selling, however.

"There appears to be a lot of pain on the street in fixed income," he said in a note. "The breakdown in correlation between oil, rates and risky assets suggests that yesterday's move was a dominant position squaring move, rather than driven purely by fundamentals."

The balance of probabilities suggests there is at least one more leg of weakness in long-dated bonds still to play out in the coming months, said Padhraic Garvey, regional head of research for the Americas and Michiel Tukker, senior U.K. and eurozone rates strategist at ING.

"Yesterday's superheated U.S. flash PMIs triggered a sharp tightening in financial conditions during the European evening," Mohamad Al-Saraf, senior fixed income and FX analyst at Danske Bank, said in a note.

Investors will focus on the Treasury's $44 billion auction of seven-year notes and its $6 billion buyback auction of 20- and 30-year bonds on Thursday.

 
 

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