According to Woofun AI, Bitcoin's price has decisively broken through the $85,000 level, a key resistance that had long suppressed the market, and attention has now shifted to the $100,000 psychological threshold. With seller liquidity drying up significantly and a rare accumulation pattern re-emerging, bullish forces are attempting to push the price above $90,000.

This technical breakout is not an isolated event but the result of improved on-chain microstructure, the return of institutional valuation anchors, and a shift in macroeconomic policy expectations. Although historical high-valuation zones and potential leverage liquidation risks still lie ahead, current market momentum shows a strong intention to expand into higher price ranges. Notably, the disappearance of the $85,000 sell wall marks a fundamental reversal in market supply-demand dynamics, laying a new foundation for the subsequent price discovery process.

From the perspective of on-chain microstructure, the dissipation of selling pressure and the concentration of accumulation behavior are the core drivers of this rebound. On October 2, after buyers successfully penetrated the approximately $85,000 sell wall that had repeatedly resisted previous attempts, Bitcoin briefly touched a high of $87,000 intraday. Glassnode's analysis noted that some sell orders previously stacked in that area have been filled, while others were actively withdrawn, significantly reducing the concentration of selling pressure near $87,000, with liquidity above that level also becoming less visible.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant's Bitcoin accumulation trend chart shows a sharp contraction in its volatility band, a pattern that is extremely rare historically but重现了 the trajectory seen before two major rallies in 2025. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that this accumulation trend chart tracks the buying and selling behavior of different holder cohorts to reflect whether supply is being absorbed or distributed. The first contraction occurred between April 17 and 20, 2025, when Bitcoin was trading around $84,000, after which the price climbed to approximately $109,000; the second contraction appeared between March 5 and 8, also followed by a price increase. Although such occurrences are rare and not yet sufficient as an absolutely reliable predictive tool, combined with the current improvement in overall market conditions, this most recent contraction appears particularly noteworthy.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost further pointed out that holders who purchased Bitcoin 18 months to 2 years ago have an average cost basis of approximately $88,350, while those who bought 6 to 12 months ago have an average cost basis of around $89,200 and have been at a loss for nearly a year. As the price approaches these cost lines, some investors may choose to sell near breakeven, while others may continue holding or add to their positions to lower their average cost. Whether buyers can effectively absorb this returning supply will determine whether the rebound can extend above $90,000.

At the institutional valuation level, cost basis data provided by Bitwise offers the market a clear reference framework. Bitwise said this week that Bitcoin has returned to key cost basis levels it uses to gauge shifts in risk appetite, including the short-term holder cost basis of approximately $73,000, the true market mean cost basis of about $77,000, and the estimated average cost basis for spot ETF investors of roughly $83,000.

After Bitcoin broke through the $85,000 short-term holder realized cost range, the market entered a distribution zone where profitability has historically been difficult to sustain. Bitwise believes the next short-term holder reference level is around $90,000, which is 1.5 standard deviations above the realized cost; the next two-standard-deviation level is around $95,000. In its historical data, Bitcoin has traded above these two thresholds on only about 3.8% and 1.7% of days. Additionally, Bitwise's Fibonacci analysis framework identifies levels around $92,000 and $100,000, further increasing the density of technical and on-chain indicators in that region. Therefore, Bitwise defines the $90,000 to $100,000 range as the next zone where multiple structural reference points converge, meaning this range is not just a price target but a critical battleground for bulls and bears.

Derivatives market positioning also confirms bullish expectations for the $90,000 to $100,000 range. Deribit data shows that approximately $2.1 billion in Bitcoin call options are concentrated at the $90,000 strike, $2.4 billion at the $95,000 level, and another $1.8 billion at the $100,000 level. This concentrated distribution of call options indicates strong bullish demand as prices approach these strikes. While the impact of these options on the spot market depends on expiry dates and dealer hedging operations, billions of dollars in committed capital clearly support the price entering this range.

At the same time, speculative positions are being rebuilt. Bitcoin open interest fell to approximately $52 billion at the end of September but had recovered to about $56.2 billion in the first two days of October. This increase of roughly $4.2 billion corresponds precisely to Bitcoin's price rising from around $83,500 to briefly exceeding $87,000. This rebound indicates that traders are re-establishing positions after reducing exposure at the end of September. Although rising open interest means new positions are following the price higher, this indicator alone cannot determine direction. However, the open interest at the end of September, which was at its lowest level of the year, left room for speculative activity to re-emerge without requiring prices to immediately return to extreme levels. Nevertheless, rising funding costs make maintaining long positions more difficult, and if the rebound reverses, these leveraged positions will face greater liquidation risk.

The improvement in the macroeconomic environment provided an additional catalyst for Bitcoin's rally. Friday's U.S. employment data showed that only 29,000 jobs were added in September, far below economists' expectations of 90,000; the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, and August's wage growth data was also revised down. This weak data reduced market expectations for another rate hike at the Fed's October meeting, causing U.S. Treasury yields to fall and driving stock prices higher. The probability of an October rate hike has dropped below 20%, removing an immediate threat to Bitcoin's rise.

However, more severe tests remain within the cryptocurrency market itself. If Bitcoin can sustainably break above $90,000, it will enter a zone that Bitwise considers already elevated relative to recent investor cost bases. Once the price reaches $95,000, it will enter territory touched on fewer than 2% of days in the company's data sample, at which point buyers will need to simultaneously absorb returning holder supply and increasingly expensive leveraged positions. If it fails to break through, market attention will turn back to $83,000, as Bitwise considers this the average cost basis for ETF investors and the first important downside level the bull camp needs to defend.