Treasury yields climb further after 10-year hits 19-year peak as traders boost Fed rate hike wagers

Deep News
Sep 24

In early trading on Thursday, US Treasury yields extended the previous session's advance. The latest US business activity data came in stronger than expected, reinforcing market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose 1 basis point to 5.124%; during Wednesday's session it had surged more than 13 basis points to 5.104%, marking a 19-year high. Meanwhile, the 30-year Treasury yield gained more than 1 basis point to 5.42%; the 2-year Treasury yield was roughly flat at 4.895%. Global bond markets saw yields rise in tandem, with Japan's 10-year government bond yield climbing 8 basis points to 3.055%, the highest level since August 1996. UK gilts and German bunds also moved higher. Note: 1 basis point equals 0.01%; bond yields and prices move in opposite directions. Quotes: US 10-year Treasury: 5.139% (+0.025); US 1-month Treasury: 3.888% (+0.002); US 1-year Treasury: 4.485% (+0.021); US 2-year Treasury: 4.897% (+0.002); US 30-year Treasury: 5.436% (+0.034); US 3-month Treasury: 4.146% (+0.01); US 6-month Treasury: 4.342% (-0.001). Multiple factors have triggered this round of US Treasury selling: stronger-than-expected US economic activity, hawkish remarks from Fed officials, and elevated international oil prices. S&P Global on Wednesday released its purchasing managers' index (PMI): the September services PMI rose to 58.7, the highest in nearly five years; the manufacturing PMI rose to 56.7, a more than four-year high. This set of data boosted rate hike expectations. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders' pricing shows the probability of another rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee's October meeting has reached 70%. Fed Governor Michael Barr said on Wednesday that to bring inflation back to target, the Fed will likely need to implement "further policy adjustments." Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a Thursday research note on the Treasury selloff: "The core driver is the sharp strengthening in PMI data, combined with the rebound in oil prices; the two factors together have intensified market speculation about faster Fed rate hikes." The analysts added: "The PMI data confirms the resilience of the US economy, which also gives the Fed room to continue raising rates to suppress inflation." In early trading on Thursday, international benchmark Brent crude futures fell 0.54% to $103.66 per barrel; US WTI crude futures for November delivery fell 0.6% to $92.68 per barrel. Investors will focus on Thursday's US weekly initial jobless claims data and August new home sales data to further assess the state of the US economy.

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