Trump Confident About Midterms, but Republicans Are Starting to Panic

Deep News
Sep 26

Earlier this week, U.S. President Trump hosted French President Macron at Trump Tower in New York, showing off the apartment's lavish decor while discussing the American economy and expressing optimism about the upcoming November midterm elections.

Trump appears convinced that Republicans will retain control of Congress after the midterms.

But many Republicans do not share that view — in fact, they are beginning to panic.

According to many Republicans, Trump's missteps on issues such as Iran have caused his approval ratings to drop significantly, which could seriously endanger Republican electoral prospects.

In this midterm election, all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives will be up for re-election.

Currently, Republicans hold a very slim advantage in the House, controlling 218 seats, while Democrats hold 214, with one independent member and two vacant seats.

This means Democrats only need to pick up a few seats in the House to overturn Republican control.

More than one-third of the Senate's 100 seats will be up for re-election.

Republicans currently control 53 Senate seats, while Democrats hold 47.

Since the U.S. Vice President casts the deciding vote in a 50-50 tie in the Senate, Democrats would need a net gain of four seats to overturn Senate control.

Although Trump has repeatedly stressed recently that he believes Republicans can win the midterms, the decline in his approval ratings has still triggered concerns among Republicans.

The latest Wall Street Journal poll shows that only 37% of Americans approve of Trump's job performance — the lowest midterm approval rating for any president since the newspaper began conducting polls in 1990.

A comparison of midterm approval ratings for successive U.S. presidents by the Wall Street Journal since 1990 also shows that among voters who cast their ballots for Trump in the 2024 election, 11% of respondents expressed regret.

Among Republicans who say they do not belong to the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) camp, 11% said they would vote for Democrats in the midterms.

Some Republican strategists say the reason for this may be that American voters associate Trump with issues such as soaring food and gasoline prices and rising mortgage rates.

Many voters believe the conflict between the United States and Iran shows no sign of ending, and the crisis has driven up global oil prices, sending U.S. gasoline and diesel prices soaring.

Meanwhile, U.S. mortgage rates broke through 7% in September, rising to their highest level in more than two years, increasing housing cost pressures on the American public and leaving many U.S. voters dissatisfied with the Trump administration.

A poll released by NBC on September 20 shows that more than 60% of respondents believe the U.S. military action against Iran is "not worth the cost," and more than half of voters blame Trump's policies for harming the U.S. economy.

Republican strategist Colin Reed pointed out: "It feels like things are going downhill fast starting this week. President Trump is now synonymous with the Republican Party, and because his approval ratings are falling, the entire Republican Party needs to deal with this political reality."

As the midterms approach, Trump has also made a series of moves that have puzzled Republicans: he suddenly banned three American media outlets from the White House, clashing with the press; he reversed course and praised New York City's Democratic Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who has long been a thorn in the side of American conservatives; and at the United Nations, he threatened to further escalate the military conflict with Iran.

These actions have further intensified the party's internal "panic" sentiment.

U.S. President Trump IC photo The Wall Street Journal noted that some Republican candidates have even proactively "drawn a line" and begun leveraging voter dissatisfaction with Trump to campaign.

For example, Michigan Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers called for ending the Iran war in a campaign video, emphasizing the importance of ending the war as soon as possible and lowering prices.

Republican Congressman Ashley Hinson, who is running for the Senate in Iowa, also called for ending the Iran war.

Florida Republican Congresswoman Maria Elvira Salazar publicly criticized Trump's immigration policies, accusing the Trump administration of overly harsh immigration enforcement.

Some people familiar with the matter revealed that although Trump feels good, the atmosphere inside the White House is sometimes quite low.

Senior White House officials acknowledge that the White House political team feels enormous pressure and is deeply worried about Democratic prospects in both the Senate and the House.

A Trump adviser also told The Wall Street Journal that the White House political team has been in contact with Republican candidates who oppose Trump, and that Trump understands some candidates need to "do whatever it takes," including "keeping their distance" from Trump or his policies during the election period, but Trump privately remains displeased with some candidates' statements.

Trump's political team is funding Republican campaigns across the United States, but some Republicans say that in traditionally safe Republican "red states" such as Iowa and Ohio, Republican electoral prospects have also begun to deteriorate, forcing them to invest more money in those states.

People familiar with the matter gave an example: in Texas, one of the Republican Party's "strongholds," the Republican Texas Political Action Committee (Texas PAC) has invested more than $100 million to support the state's Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton's Senate campaign, with total spending expected to reach $200 million.

Currently, Paxton has failed to gain an advantage in opinion polls.

To boost Republican electoral prospects, Trump is taking a series of remedial measures.

On September 22 local time, Trump said he is considering restricting diesel exports to curb rising U.S. energy prices.

Under pressure from the midterms, this proposal has gained support from many Republicans.

Midterm elections are typically seen as a "referendum" on the incumbent U.S. administration, and changes in the number of seats held by the two parties in Congress can, to some extent, reflect the direction of the next presidential election.

In the final two years of Trump's second term, which party controls the U.S. Congress could have a major impact on Trump's political agenda and could reshape the political landscape ahead of the 2028 U.S. presidential election.

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