On October 1, during the National Day holiday, the market continued to fluctuate normally. The overall rhythm of the gold market is now relatively clear, and short-term price action shows obvious patterns. Yesterday, Wednesday's gold market largely matched our expectations for short-term long and short trading. During the daytime, our short-term bullish view played out with a steady rebound, and the price rose to a high of 4220. However, the rally ultimately failed to sustain its strength due to news-driven factors, and in the midnight session, pressure from a stronger US dollar caused gold prices to fall back rapidly, dropping to around the 4140 mark. Short-term price action ultimately lost the key 4200 level, which means gold has not yet completely reversed its weak pattern and indicates that a genuine bullish uptrend has not yet begun.
It is worth noting, however, that although yesterday's session saw a spike and pullback with prices turning weak again, the recent chart has already shown clear signs of stabilization. The previous sustained sharp decline has come to a complete halt, short-term gold prices are no longer making new lows, and the overall pattern has shifted from a one-way decline to low-level consolidation. The market is currently in a phase of tug-of-war between bulls and bears, still accumulating momentum without a clear direction. The two major data releases remaining this week will be key to breaking the current consolidation pattern and are expected to directly determine gold's short-term direction in the coming days.
The upcoming market this week will be entirely focused on data-driven influences, with Thursday's initial jobless claims and Friday's non-farm payrolls data being critically important. Before these data points are released, gold will find it difficult to establish a sustained one-way trend, and short-term price action will likely only maintain a back-and-forth washing pattern. Simply put, gold lacks independent momentum for gains or losses in the short term, and overall market sentiment is one of strong观望 — wait-and-see — as participants await data stimulus to provide clear guidance for future price direction.
From the current daily technical perspective, gold is temporarily in a neutral-to-weak state, neither rising nor falling decisively. For the market to truly turn stronger, prices must consistently close higher and firmly establish above the 4200 level. However, Wednesday's session again produced a bearish close, indicating that prices remain suppressed by short-term moving averages and bullish momentum remains insufficient. Fortunately, the market has not entered an extremely weak trend again, and Tuesday's bullish candle provides support at the bottom, keeping gold prices essentially stable above the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart. As a result, the overall market remains in a weak consolidation and rest phase.
Gold's current short-term upside and downside spaces have actually provided clear price levels, and the key levels above and below are now quite distinct. As long as gold prices can fully establish above the 4200-4220 range, the bullish trend will truly commence, with upside targets looking toward 4300 and 4325 in sequence. Conversely, if data-driven pressure causes prices to effectively break below the 4100 support level, gold will resume its weakening trend, with the downside expected to target the previous low of 3940.
For today's daytime short-term trading, reference levels remain as follows: 1. For short positions on continued rebounds under pressure: if prices rebound again to touch the 4200-4210 area, short positions can still be initiated, with a stop above 4225 and targets looking down toward the 4155-4165 area. 2. For considering long positions on further pullbacks: if prices continue to pull back and confirm support near 4145-4155, long positions can be initiated again, with a stop below 4135 and targets looking up toward the 4195-4205 level.