October 1: In the previous trading session on Wednesday (September 30), international gold prices initially received support from Tuesday's buying interest and an unexpected decline in the U.S. August core PCE inflation data, which lifted prices to an intraday high. However, Federal Reserve officials continued to deliver a密集 barrage of hawkish signals. Cook reiterated that inflation has exceeded the 2% target for over five years, supported a September rate hike, and expressed commitment to restoring price stability. Oil prices rebounded from their lows, and the U.S. dollar index recovered from its bottom and strengthened, pressuring gold. Ultimately, prices surged then retreated, closing lower with a bearish inverted hammer, suggesting exhausted rebound momentum and a bias toward rangebound trading or further declines ahead.

In terms of specific price action, gold opened in the Asian session at $4,183.32 per ounce, first rebounding and strengthening to reach an intraday high of $4,218.39 in the early U.S. session. It then encountered resistance and pulled back, continuing to decline into the latter half of the U.S. session, hitting an intraday low of $4,147.51 at 1:00 AM the following day. It eventually stabilized and consolidated, closing at $4,156.88, with a daily range of $70.88, down $26.44 or 0.63%.

Looking Ahead to Today, Thursday (October 1)

International gold opened with a weaker bias. In early trading, Federal Reserve's Kashkari stated that inflation remains elevated and projected one more rate hike each this year and next, adding further pressure on gold prices. However, Fed commentary still lacks data support. Currently, U.S. August and second-quarter PCE figures overall came in below expectations and previous readings, reducing inflation pressure and likely limiting the downward pressure from hawkish remarks.

During the day, market participants will monitor U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending September 26, the final reading of the U.S. September S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, the U.S. September ISM Manufacturing PMI, and the U.S. August construction spending month-over-month rate. Based on yesterday's released data and market expectations, the bias is likely bearish for gold, or at best mixed with rangebound trading. Therefore, intraday price action is expected to be rangebound with a weaker bias, and trading should lean toward selling on rebounds.

Technical Analysis

On the weekly chart, gold prices fell further this week, moving away from the 30-week and middle-band resistance, with bearish momentum intensifying. The Bollinger Bands also tilt downward, suggesting further downside potential. However, prices are currently near the ascending trend channel support, raising the prospect of continued adjustment above this support before strengthening. If prices continue to consolidate above this support, a scenario similar to the April-August 2025 rangebound adjustment followed by an upward climb could unfold, with the $4,100 level as a key support area for bullish positioning. Conversely, if prices decline further, the ascending trend channel from 2024 could provide another bullish opportunity, with the ascending channel support zone at $4,100-$3,800.

On the daily chart, gold surged then retreated to close lower yesterday, suggesting exhausted rebound momentum and the bears regaining the upper hand, with a bias toward rangebound trading ahead. On the upside, the 5/10-day moving average resistance can be watched for shorting opportunities; on the downside, the Bollinger Band lower rail or ascending trendline support can be watched for bullish rebounds. Below are preliminary intraday support and resistance levels for reference; actual entry and exit points are subject to real-time notifications:

Gold: Downside support at $4,130 or $4,100; Upside resistance at $4,180 or $4,205.

Silver: Downside support at $59.80 or $59.25; Upside resistance at $61.20 or $61.90.