On the final trading day before the National Day holiday, Unitree Robotics closed at 450.40 yuan, giving it a total market capitalization of approximately 182.2 billion yuan.

On the first day of the holiday, JPMorgan initiated coverage of Unitree Robotics in a report titled "Humanoid Robot: Re-assessing sector positioning: UBTech downgraded, Leader Drive and Orbbec model upgrades, and our preferred names," assigning an "Underweight" rating with a price target of 300 yuan.

The timing was notable. In early September, The Information reported, and in late September, Reuters followed up, that regulators had used informal "window guidance" to slow down IPOs of humanoid robotics companies, with the trigger pointing to the stock price volatility after Unitree's listing. The CSRC has not responded to date.

JPMorgan Didn't Cut Earnings, It Cut the Multiple

Based on total share capital of 404.46 million shares, here is the calculation: under the closing price of 450.40 yuan before the holiday, market capitalization is approximately 182.2 billion yuan, implying a 2027E price-to-sales ratio of 46 times and backward-derived 2027E revenue of approximately 3.96 billion yuan. Under JPMorgan's target price of 300 yuan, market capitalization would be approximately 121.3 billion yuan, implying a 30 times multiple and backward-derived 2027E revenue of approximately 4.04 billion yuan.

The 2027 revenue derived from both calculations is almost identical, both around 4 billion yuan. In other words, JPMorgan is not pessimistic about how much Unitree can sell. Relative to 2025 revenue of 1.699 billion yuan, this implies a default assumption of 2.4 times growth over two years. What it disagrees with is the multiple. A 46 times price-to-sales ratio, in its view, has already priced in "perfect execution and sustained leadership," so it wants to compress it to 30 times. Essentially, this is not about pricing Unitree's earnings performance; it is about pricing Unitree's "story premium."

The 300 Yuan Anchor Was Cast in the Primary Market

JPMorgan was quite explicit: the 30 times price-to-sales ratio references valuations from recent private funding rounds of companies like Agility Robotics. The problem is that primary market valuations themselves are being pushed down by window guidance rumors. Weaker exit expectations through IPOs lead to looser private pricing, which lowers comparable multiples, which then circles back to price the secondary market. A chain of "regulatory tightening leads to private valuation markdowns leads to secondary market price-to-sales compression" closes the loop.

Reuters also had a more pointed line: sources said that if revenue related to robot data collection centers were excluded, some companies' valuations could drop by 60% to 70%. Among Unitree's humanoid robot revenue in the first nine months of 2025, scientific research and education accounted for 73.6%. Whether this type of revenue will be re-measured by the market using the same yardstick is worth watching.

Another easily overlooked point is the new U.S. FCC restrictions mentioned by JPMorgan. Unitree's overseas main business revenue in the final reporting period was approximately 730 million yuan, accounting for about 40% of 2025 revenue on a calculated basis. The specific scope of the restrictions was not elaborated in the research summary and has not been further clarified.

Tightening Is Negative for Unitree, but It Could Also Be a "Moat"

There is a counterintuitive aspect to this. If the listing channels for peers are truly narrowed, Unitree's identity as one of the few already-listed humanoid robotics hardware companies would actually be reinforced as the "only publicly priced sample."

By the three rumored criteria—sustainable revenue, narrowing losses, and core technology—Unitree was already profitable in 2024, making it significantly less vulnerable than queued companies that rely on shareholder purchases to support revenue and whose losses are still widening. JPMorgan itself said it is bullish on the industry reaching an inflection point in two to four years, and Unitree is expected to become "one of the few survivors" after consolidation. What it is underweighting is the price, not the company.

So the current situation is this: institutional views and corresponding market capitalizations—JPMorgan Underweight / 300 yuan, approximately 121.3 billion yuan; Nomura Buy / 370 yuan, approximately 149.6 billion yuan; CCB International 32 times price-to-sales ratio, approximately 109.0 billion yuan; CITIC Securities (during the inquiry stage)—50.6 to 55.9 billion yuan. The gap between the most optimistic and the most cautious is more than double, and the pre-holiday stock price still stood above all mainstream foreign target prices.

One last note: on August 19, buying at 1,100 yuan was about "not being able to get in"; in October, a 300 yuan target price is about "being able to calculate it clearly." From the issue price of 150.80 yuan to 1,100 yuan, and then to 450 yuan, the company itself has not changed—revenue, profit, and team are all the same. What has changed is only how much the market is willing to pay for the same financial report. On August 19, 2027, approximately 228.7 million shares will be unlocked, accounting for 56.56% of total share capital. By then, the books will be more honest than any research report.