Major global financial news overnight and this morning includes the following top stories: 1. Trump says the U.S. "possibly" will intensify bombing of Iran after the midterm elections, noting America has plenty of weapons. 2. The Pentagon may soon send an additional aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf, providing more options for escalating strikes against Iran. 3. OpenAI fires three researchers, citing improper sharing of sensitive information. 4. Anthropic is reportedly planning a large-scale IPO as early as before the Thanksgiving holiday. 5. JPMorgan strategists expect market volatility may increase before the U.S. midterm elections. 6. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson says the central bank may need more time to decide its next move.
President Donald Trump said it is "possible" that the U.S. will intensify military strikes on Iran after the November midterm elections. In recent weeks, Trump has said he believes Iran is deliberately dragging out diplomatic negotiations until after the midterms. Trump rejected Iran's recent proposal to exchange the opening of the Strait of Hormuz for U.S. concessions. In an interview published Thursday by Time magazine, when asked whether he would resume bombing Iran after the midterms, Trump replied, "It's possible." When pressed for further details, he said: "I can't tell you, because you're asking where we're going to bomb."
An American official said the Pentagon may soon send an additional aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf. Should Trump decide to escalate strikes on Iran, this move would provide more options for U.S. commanders in the Middle East. The official said the USS Theodore Roosevelt departed its home port of San Diego on Sunday. Its final destination has not yet been determined, but the deployment would give U.S. Central Command more choices depending on regional developments. If the Roosevelt ultimately arrives in the Middle East, the number of carrier strike groups there would return to three, the same as when the war with Iran began. At that point, the 5,000 sailors and Marines aboard the Roosevelt, along with thousands of military personnel distributed across accompanying vessels, would also enter the region. The USS George H.W. Bush and USS George Washington will remain in place. Before the military operation against Iran in April, the last time the U.S. deployed three carrier strike groups simultaneously in the Middle East was in 2003.
OpenAI terminated its employment relationship with three employees for violating rules on handling non-public information, accusing them of leaking information externally. "Our investigation confirmed that these individuals improperly handled sensitive information in violation of established company procedures, breached our policies, and undermined the trust that is essential to our work," a company spokesperson said in a statement Thursday. A person familiar with the matter, who declined to be identified, said the employees involved were two security researchers and a research project manager, who were accused of leaking sensitive company information to an external AI evaluation organization. The person said some of the allegedly leaked information involved OpenAI's infrastructure architecture.
People familiar with the matter said AI model developer Anthropic is seeking to hold an initial public offering (IPO) as early as mid-November. The sources said the company may formally launch its IPO roadshow as early as the week of November 9, with trading potentially beginning before Thanksgiving. This year's Thanksgiving is on November 26, and trading activity typically slows noticeably around the holiday. The sources said Anthropic still expects to complete its listing by the end of this year at the latest. Earlier reports said the AI developer had originally planned to publicly file for an IPO after the summer. The discussions are still ongoing, and the timetable may continue to change.
Options traders appear unfazed by the U.S. midterm elections, leaving stocks already affected by a bond selloff and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's rate path facing potential risks. Data compiled by Barclays shows the S&P 500 Index is expected to swing 0.8% on November 4, the day after the midterms. According to Kalshi data, betting markets assign a 62% probability to Democrats winning both chambers of Congress, while the probability of a divided Congress — Republicans keeping the Senate and Democrats winning the House — is about 29%. Investors have downplayed election risk partly because the market still hopes for a "divided government." Such a situation typically leads to legislative gridlock, reducing the risk of major market swings. However, as voting approaches, volatility could still rise again, and the possibility of a chaotic election outcome cannot be ruled out. Wells Fargo strategists said that, at least for now, traders expect this midterm election to be a "non-event."
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said policymakers may need more time to determine whether further rate hikes are necessary to curb inflation. Jefferson warned that inflation has been too high for too long and said there is a risk that inflation remains persistently elevated. But he also said he and his colleagues are weighing a series of economic shocks and need to carefully assess upcoming data before deciding on their next move. In remarks prepared for a speech scheduled for Thursday in Charlottesville, Virginia, Jefferson said: "Looking ahead, I believe any future policy adjustments should be decided by carefully examining data trends, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. My colleagues and I need to make our own judgments, and that may take more time."