During this year's National Day holiday, passenger air traffic climbed once again. The Civil Aviation Administration of China estimates that over the 13 days from September 25 to October 7, the national civil aviation system will carry 31.19 million passengers, averaging about 2.4 million per day, a growth rate of 3.6%, with the single-day peak expected to exceed 2.6 million, surpassing last year's level for the same period.

Only three working days separate this year's Mid-Autumn Festival from National Day. By taking three days of leave and extending the break to 13 days, the holiday can be stretched to nearly two weeks. Alongside the rise in passenger traffic, ticket prices are moving upward in tandem. Data from Flight Manager shows that as of September 29, the weighted average domestic economy-class fare including taxes for the 2026 National Day holiday (October 1 to 7) stands at 929.7 yuan, up 11.2% from 836.0 yuan in the same period of 2025, while the average base fare is 820.2 yuan, up 6.0% year on year. Rising volume and rising prices usually signal an earnings window for airlines, though their performance during the National Day period remains to be verified. Still, looking at operating data from the first half of this year, many airlines have fallen into a situation of growing revenue without growing profit.

Aviation fuel costs are the biggest variable affecting performance. In the first half of this year, the aviation industry came under overall pressure. Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, the three major carriers, reported combined first-half revenue of 258.1 billion yuan, up more than 10% year on year, while their combined net profit attributable to shareholders showed a loss of 8.161 billion yuan. In the first quarter, the three together earned about 4.8 billion yuan, but in the second quarter alone they lost nearly 13 billion yuan. Growing revenue without growing profit has become the common state of the industry in the first half. In the first quarter, seven listed domestic airlines achieved collective profitability. Starting in March, geopolitical conflicts escalated and international oil prices kept climbing, making the second quarter a turning point for performance.

Aviation fuel is the single largest cost item for airlines, accounting for roughly 30% to 40% of operating costs. Spring Airlines, known as the most profitable airline in China, disclosed that in the first half of 2026, the average comprehensive domestic aviation fuel procurement cost rose sharply by 38.5% year on year, driving the company's unit fuel cost up 33.2% and becoming a major pressure on the cost side. Oil prices have now retreated from their April high but remain elevated, clearly above normal 2025 levels.

How Spring Airlines stays profitable by earning less. Against the backdrop of industry-wide losses, Spring Airlines is one of the few exceptions. In the first half, the company generated operating revenue of 12.336 billion yuan, up 19.7% year on year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.042 billion yuan, the highest among the seven listed airlines. But Spring Airlines was also hit by oil prices. First-half net profit attributable to shareholders fell 10.8% year on year, with second-quarter net profit at only 59.44 million yuan, down nearly 88% from the same period a year earlier. A more accurate statement is that most peers fell into losses while Spring Airlines saw its profit narrow but remained profitable.

This outcome can be seen from both the revenue and cost sides. On the revenue side, Spring Airlines' growth relied mainly on load factor and capacity deployment rather than price increases. In the first half, its load factor was 92.6%, up 2.08 percentage points year on year; passenger traffic reached 17.37 million, up 14.2%; and available seat kilometers grew 15.4%. On fares, the company's overall yield per revenue passenger kilometer was 0.385 yuan, up only 2.34%, a restrained increase. The difference shows in route structure: domestic route yield rose 0.87%, international route yield rose 8.07%, and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan route yield rose 13.53%. Spring Airlines directed more new capacity toward short-haul international routes such as Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, where fare and fuel surcharge pass-through is more direct and revenue improvement is more evident. Safeguarding load factor on domestic routes and raising yields on international routes forms the basic approach on the revenue side.

Fuel consumption is hard to control, but non-fuel costs keep falling. Cost control is Spring Airlines' core advantage. In the first half, the company's aviation fuel cost was 4.577 billion yuan, up 53.7% year on year, accounting for 41.4% of operating costs and pushing unit cost up 8% to 0.327 yuan per seat kilometer. But excluding fuel, unit non-fuel cost was 0.192 yuan, down 4.8% year on year. This result came mainly from three aspects. Aircraft utilization is one of them. Spring Airlines' average daily aircraft utilization was 10.73 hours, up 10.2% year on year, while the industry average was 8.9 hours. Longer daily flight time per aircraft helps dilute fixed costs such as depreciation and rent. At the same time, the aircraft type and cabin layout remain uniform. The fleet is mainly composed of Airbus A320 series aircraft, with an all-economy cabin layout, offering 10% to 15% more seats than comparable aircraft with a two-class layout. In addition, selling and administrative expenses have been compressed to extremely low levels. E-commerce direct sales account for 99.6%, with selling expenses of only 0.004 yuan per seat kilometer and administrative expenses of only 0.0044 yuan. On the revenue side, protecting volume through load factor and raising prices on international routes, and on the cost side, offsetting higher oil prices with lower non-fuel costs, form the basic logic behind Spring Airlines' ability to earn less without falling into loss during a high oil price cycle.

The sustainability of profitability still faces variables. From a medium- to long-term perspective, Spring Airlines still has four issues to resolve. The most direct is its reliance on subsidies for profit. According to media reports, in the first half Spring Airlines received government subsidies totaling 669 million yuan, equivalent to 64% of net profit attributable to shareholders. This ratio compares pre-tax subsidies with after-tax profit, so the calculation is somewhat rough; if the denominator is total profit of 1.364 billion yuan, the share is about half. Whichever measure is used, the proportion is not low, and a reduction in subsidies would directly affect book profit. Oil price exposure is another variable. According to reports, Spring Airlines does not conduct aviation fuel hedging. When oil prices fall, the company can benefit fully; when oil prices rise, it must bear performance volatility like that in the second quarter. Fleet structure and financial leverage also deserve attention. The company currently has 138 aircraft, of which about 74 are older A320ceo models, more than half the total, with fuel consumption about 15% higher than the newer neo models. At the same time, the debt-to-asset ratio rose from 61.3% at the beginning of the year to 65.7%, and the company also plans to issue up to 10 billion yuan in corporate bonds to expand capacity. Service reputation is another weak point. Within 10 days from late July to early August, Spring Airlines issued two consecutive apology notices: one after being named by a consumer association for its service hotline being unreachable for a long time before a meeting, and another after passengers protested by knocking on windows because a shuttle bus was hot and stuffy. The greater the peak-season passenger flow, the more easily shortcomings in service and rules are magnified.

Conclusion. National Day passenger traffic and ticket prices are both at high levels, but the actual performance of airlines during this peak season still needs to be verified by third-quarter reports. Judging from the first half of this year, the peak season determines the height of revenue, while the final profit level depends on cost structure. Spring Airlines, relying on a high load factor, high aircraft utilization, and adjustments to its international route structure, has kept the oil price shock within the range of narrower profit rather than loss. Subsidy dependence, oil price exposure, fleet structure, and service reputation are the variables in its transition from being the most profitable to achieving sustained profitability. For passengers, behind the price of a National Day ticket lies the airline's meticulous calculation of fuel, flight time, and seats.