Shanghai's housing market has once again witnessed a "thousand-person lottery" for new projects. On the first working day after the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, a popular project in Xujing, Qingpu District held its second batch of unit selection, with 281 units attracting over a thousand groups of buyers to participate in subscriptions, and the project achieved a "same-day sellout" once again on its launch day.

At around 12:00 on September 28, a reporter arrived at the launch site. With the official unit selection not starting until 13:18, long queues had already formed at the entrance area. A buyer at the scene told the reporter that their lottery number was in the 380s, and they had taken leave from work specifically to come. "My number is relatively late, but I still wanted to try my luck and see if I could snag a leftover unit."

It is understood that the project's second batch offered 281 units, covering three-bedroom units of approximately 106 square meters to 119 square meters and four-bedroom units of 136 square meters to 181 square meters, with an average price of 62,814 yuan per square meter. According to publicly available project information, a total of 1,364 groups of intention buyers signed purchase intention agreements for the project. After review by relevant government departments, 525 groups of subscription buyers met Shanghai's purchase restriction policies and achieved the qualifying score threshold of 68.19 points.

A buyer who was unsuccessful during the first launch told the reporter that they had finally selected their desired unit this time. In their view, the project offers convenient subway access and is surrounded by numerous commercial buildings, balancing both residential and asset preservation attributes. They noted that they had compared multiple projects and could clearly feel the market differentiation. Many other buyers also said they had not participated in the first batch of subscriptions but signed up for the second batch after seeing the project's high popularity and visiting the showroom.

Public information shows that the project's first batch attracted 946 groups of buyers to participate in subscriptions, achieving a subscription rate of 415%, making it the first residential project in the Greater Hongqiao area in nearly three years to trigger the points-based system, with all 228 units sold out on the launch day.

Additionally, the reporter observed at the scene that some buyers arrived directly dragging suitcases. "We were originally traveling outside the city and specifically interrupted our vacation to rush back for the unit selection." A buyer working in Qingpu weighed new homes against nearby recently completed second-hand homes repeatedly. They admitted that the price gap between the two was not significant, but current second-hand homeowners generally have firm expectations, and the actual room for negotiation is relatively small.

It is worth noting that the strong sales of this new project in Xujing is not an isolated case. Recently, multiple new projects in Shanghai have successively seen same-day sellout scenarios. On September 25, all 135 units of the second batch of Xiangyu Jinmao Manjia in Jiading sold out; on September 26, 147 units of Senlan Yuexiu Tianyu were cleared immediately upon launch.

While new home popularity rises, the second-hand housing market is also recovering in tandem. Monitoring data from Shanghai Lianjia shows that from September 1 to September 27, the number of second-hand home viewings on Shanghai Lianjia increased by 5.5% compared to the first 27 days of August, and customer inquiries rose by 3.5%. According to Anjuke Shanghai statistics, as of September 27, Shanghai's second-hand housing (including commercial) cumulative transactions in September had exceeded 20,000 units, reaching 20,721 units, a year-on-year increase of 12%.

Lu Wenxi, a market analyst at Shanghai Centaline Property, stated that during the Mid-Autumn Festival week, Shanghai's new home transactions maintained steady upward momentum, with outer-ring just-upgraded and mid-range upgrade products becoming the market's main force, and destocking heat continuing to rise. Housing supply has also seen significant replenishment, with a substantial increase in options for first-time and upgrade buyers.

Data from Shanghai Centaline Property shows that from September 21 to September 27, Shanghai's new commercial residential transaction area was 89,100 square meters, a month-on-month increase of 3.13%. Mid-range upgrade housing transaction activity continued to increase. The supply side also saw significant recovery, with new commercial residential market entry area reaching 158,200 square meters last week, a month-on-month surge of 152.81%, with a total of 13 projects obtaining certificates and entering the market, with supply blooming across multiple locations.

Among them, the project with the highest supply volume was Xiangyu Jinmao Manjia in Jiading New City, which launched 135 units at once, totaling 20,000 square meters. The high-end market remained relatively restrained, with only a few luxury projects such as Sanlin Binjiang Qiantan Shangpin offering hundred-unit-level releases, and overall high-end housing placement being cautious.

Lu Wenxi analyzed that with the concentrated market entry of new homes, popular just-upgraded projects outside the outer ring are showing impressive destocking performance, and mid-range upgrade demand continues to be released. This market trend is expected to continue.

Looking nationwide, data from the China Index Academy shows that from September 1 to 27, the transaction area of new commercial residential housing in 30 key cities decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, while first-tier cities increased by 9% year-on-year; Beijing and Shanghai, driven by demand-side policy optimization in August, saw transaction increases of 18% and 16% year-on-year respectively. Second-hand residential transactions in 20 key cities reached 104,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, with Shanghai's second-hand housing transaction volume having grown year-on-year for seven consecutive months.

Cao Jingjing, general manager of the Index Research Department at the China Index Academy, believes that the current improvement in transactions in core cities is more driven by previous demand-side policies and the traditional "Golden September" sales season. Most cities' new home markets are still in the bottoming-out stage, and market recovery is mainly concentrated in quality sectors and projects in core cities.

Regarding prices, some cities' new home projects have recently seen price adjustments, but these mainly manifest as withdrawing discounts and adjusting price differences between different buildings, with truly direct sales price increases still relatively rare. The current market has not yet formed a widespread price increase trend, and project price adjustments are more localized strategic changes made by enterprises based on sales conditions, product differences, and market expectations.