On September 29, real estate ETFs posted strong gains, with Real Estate ETF Huabao (159707) and Real Estate ETF Yinhua (159768) both rising more than 5%.

On the news front, on the first working day after the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, a popular property project in Qingpu Xujing welcomed its second round of unit selection, with 281 units attracting over a thousand groups of clients to participate in subscriptions, and the project once again achieved a "sellout" on the opening day.

Li Bei of Banxia Investment recently stated that real estate opportunities have been upgraded from a "once-in-a-decade" event to a "once-in-twenty-years" event. The core logic is not a broad rise in housing prices, but rather the oligopolization opportunity for leading developers after supply clearing.

Orient Securities pointed out that in the long term, reforms will benefit leading central and state-owned enterprises with strong product capabilities, amplifying their competitive advantages, and industry concentration will accelerate. Additionally, considering that under the existing-home sales model, the pace of new home supply is being stretched out, some demand will flow to the existing-home market, and we expect the proportion of second-hand home transactions to further increase.

Guosheng Securities believes that the fundamentals of the real estate industry are still on the left side. Looking ahead three years from now, from the perspective of the sector's internal landscape, the following patterns represent the future: (1) Based on the experience of the US and Japan, diversified enterprises have stronger ability to weather cycles. Among Chinese real estate companies, only the commercial operation faction has survived the shakeout. The leaders of this tier are China Resources Land and China Resources Mixc Lifestyle. Although Longfor Group and Seazen Holdings also belong to this series, they still face pressure on financing and cash flow. China Resources Land is the top recommendation. (2) During the process of housing price declines, companies with asset-light operations also have better ability to weather cycles. This can be divided into two factions. The first faction is intermediaries (performance depends on market conditions), with KE Holdings-W as the top pick and I Love My Home in the A-share market as a secondary mapping. The second faction is property management, which in the short term still faces growth rate downgrades and pressure on traditional property fee collection rates. In classification, it is more similar to dividend stocks, and property management belongs to the laggard category: recommended are China Resources Mixc Lifestyle, China Merchants Property Operation & Service, Greentown Service, Poly Property, China Overseas Property, etc. (3) For developers primarily engaged in development, priority should be given to those meeting the following conditions: smooth financing at low cost, layout focused on core urban areas of key cities, and relatively light historical burdens. The reason why developer stock movements are volatile and repetitive is essentially because new home sales have not shown genuine stabilization at the structural level, meaning beta has not yet provided stability. Therefore, all alpha logic will be questioned after a period of time, but in reality, alpha is still alpha. It only requires that the total volume of new homes demonstrate stability at the level of a few dozen cities. From this dimension, recommended H-share names include China Resources Land, C&D International, Greentown China, China Jinmao, China Overseas Land & Investment, Yuexiu Property, etc. A-share names include Binjiang Group, China Merchants Shekou, C&D Inc., Poly Developments, I Love My Home, Huafa Industrial, etc. (4) Quasi-local government financing platform and real estate transformation stocks.

Caixin Securities stated that it maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the real estate industry. Existing-home sales stretch out the capital occupation cycle, the project IRR center shifts downward, and the slowdown in turnover will force developers to raise their requirements for profit margins. Large-scale developers with high-turnover models will face severe impacts, and investment will converge from nationwide sprawling expansion toward core cities. Regional small and medium-sized developers taking a project-based steady approach with low leverage levels, small business scale, and limited regional scope will be less affected. Recommendations: 1) Large comprehensive developers with sound finances, low financing costs, and a high proportion of operating business revenue. 2) Low-leverage regional leaders deeply rooted in their home territories that do not rely on high-leverage expansion. 3) Leading real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the rising proportion of second-hand home transactions. Recommended names include China Merchants Shekou, Seazen Holdings, Binjiang Group, I Love My Home, etc.