Nike Stock Faces Most Bearish Market Sentiment in History

Deep News
7 hours ago

Special Report: Spotlight on US Stocks Q2 2026 Earnings. On Thursday, Nike (NKE) is set to release yet another earnings report that may prove disappointing, and bearish sentiment toward the company is already plainly visible in the market.

According to the latest research data from S3 Partners, Nike's short interest has reached a record high, with short sellers holding 87 million shares.

That compares with just 55 million shares a year earlier, a significant increase.

The short interest as a percentage of float has climbed from under 3% to over 7%.

When investors short a stock, it means they expect the share price to decline.

The S3 Partners team stated: "It is worth noting that as Nike's stock price declined, short sellers continued to add to their positions rather than taking profits by closing out on the weakness. Year to date in 2026, short sellers have accumulated approximately $1.4 billion in mark-to-market gains."

Evercore ISI analyst Michael Binetti said in a research note on Monday that market concerns about Nike are mounting.

Binetti stated: "Nike's previous guidance showed continued revenue deceleration: fiscal 2026 fourth quarter (the quarter reported in May 2026) revenue declined 1% year over year, fiscal 2027 first quarter is expected to slow to low-to-mid single-digit declines, and fiscal 2027 second quarter will weaken further. Nike has already significantly lowered its underlying expectations for the China business and indicated it will strengthen product innovation in spring 2027... Based on all of the above, the current market consensus expects the year-over-year revenue decline to bottom at -4% in the first half of fiscal 2027, before narrowing to flat year over year in the second half. Since the fourth quarter earnings call, we believe retailers have already begun canceling and reducing orders for Nike's spring 2027 products, which will further weigh on Nike's revenue outlook for the second half of fiscal 2027."

Binetti added: "Nike has indicated it will likely wait until its November analyst day to reissue full annual guidance (providing a complete picture of fiscal 2027). However, with the new Chief Financial Officer in place, it may be reasonable to lower the second-half revenue outlook during this earnings call, especially if the company wants investors to focus on the long-term turnaround narrative at the important November analyst day rather than being distracted by short-term earnings revisions."

If this earnings report falls short of expectations, Nike's already poor performance over the past 12 months will worsen further.

Yahoo Finance data shows that since the last earnings release on May 28, Nike's stock has fallen approximately 27% cumulatively and is currently trading near its 52-week low, down 55% from its high last year.

Compared with its all-time high in 2021, Nike's total market capitalization has nearly halved.

Football superstar Kylian Mbappe ended his long-term commercial partnership with Nike this month and announced a move to On Holding (ONON).

Last week, Nike was removed from the S&P 100 index, ending 18 years as an index constituent.

At the end of August, Dick's Sporting Goods issued a grim business warning, partly due to Nike's aggressive discounting of slow-moving products.

Looking back at the earnings report in late June, Nike reported fourth quarter revenue of $11 billion, down 1% year over year on a reported basis and down 4% excluding currency effects.

Short sellers may once again be proven right about Nike.

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