Yen Slides Toward 158 Per Dollar as October BOJ Rate Hike Odds Fall Below 20%

Deep News
Yesterday

The yen weakened against the dollar after the summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan's September meeting disappointed investors who had hoped for signals that policymakers might be ready to act again this month.

The yen fell as much as 0.5% to 158.21 per dollar, the worst performer among G-10 currencies.

Takuya Kanda, a senior foreign exchange analyst at Gaitame.com Research Institute, said that while the summary of opinions contained a number of hawkish views, none were strong enough to reinforce market expectations for consecutive rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. He added that if the dollar rises above 158 yen, market concerns about Japanese intervention would cap further gains in the dollar.

In the summary of opinions, the Bank of Japan confirmed that its policy focus has shifted to preventing inflation from overshooting its target. The central bank raised its policy rate at its previous meeting to the highest level since 1995.

Other views put forward by policymakers included that the neutral rate may be higher than estimated, that many companies see limited impact from rate hikes so far, and that it would be appropriate to raise the policy rate further at an early stage.

Swap market pricing for a Bank of Japan rate hike by October 30 fell from more than 30% at one point on Wednesday to slightly below 20% on Thursday morning. The market has fully priced in the possibility of a rate hike at the December meeting.

Meanwhile, Japanese government bond yields rose, with gains particularly pronounced in long-dated bonds, indicating market concerns that the Bank of Japan may not tighten policy fast enough to contain inflation.

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