On Monday, CBOT soybeans fell sharply, pressured by long liquidation. US soybean meal and US soybean oil followed lower. China-US economic and trade consultations reached positive consensus, which is favorable to the outlook for US soybean exports. The weekly US soybean inspection report showed single-week inspections of 1.153 million tons, exceeding market expectations. Among them, inspections for China were 807,000 tons, accounting for 70% of total exports. The post-close crop report showed the US soybean good-to-excellent rating at 58%, in line with market expectations; the harvest rate was 17%, below market expectations.

On the domestic side, protein meal was mostly range-bound, with cautious market trading. The China-US economic and trade consultations achieved optimistic results, but implementation must wait until both sides complete procedures, so the bullish factors have been priced in. Domestic soybean meal supply is ample, while cost strength expectations are high, so pay attention to capital flows.

On Monday, BMD palm oil fell for a second consecutive day, tracking weakness in surrounding markets. However, stronger crude oil prices and a weaker ringgit limited the decline. International crude oil extended gains as Middle East tensions eased. High-frequency data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production from September 1 to 25 rose 18%-21% month on month, while exports fell 15% month on month.

On the domestic side, oils and fats continued to weaken, with palm oil leading the decline. Palm oil was weak because spot pressure remains relatively heavy, recent palm oil arrivals are high, and palm oil inventories are at elevated levels. Soybean oil inventories climbed, and oil mills increased calls for pickup. Going forward, continue to monitor traffic conditions in the Strait of Hormuz as well as oils and fats consumption and capital flows.

On Monday, live hog futures continued to retreat, and the pullback widened compared with earlier. The main 2611 contract continued to weaken, closing down 3.38% at 10,295 yuan per ton. On the spot side, Zhuochuang data showed that yesterday China's daily average live hog price was 10.04 yuan per kilogram, down 0.28 yuan per kilogram from the previous day. In Henan, the benchmark delivery area, the average live hog price was 10.06 yuan per kilogram, down 0.52 yuan per kilogram from the previous day, while Guangdong, Sichuan, Shandong, and Liaoning all declined to varying degrees. Mid-Autumn Festival stocking has ended, demand support is weak, and short-term supply is ample, so live hog spot prices continued to move lower. With the National Day holiday approaching, holiday demand support is limited, and a spot rebound is unlikely. Before supply improves, live hogs are likely to remain range-bound with a weak bias. Pay attention to the impact of supply and demand during the long holiday and changes in related commodity prices on hog prices.

On Monday, egg futures continued to trade in a range. The main 2611 contract closed down 1.47% at 3,808 yuan per 500 kilograms. On the spot side, Zhuochuang data showed that yesterday the national egg price was 4.51 yuan per jin, down 0.01 yuan per jin from the previous day. In production areas, pink-shell eggs in Ningjin were 4.25 yuan per jin, and brown-shell eggs in the Heishan market were 4.4 yuan per jin, unchanged from the previous day. In sales areas, brown-shell eggs in Puxi were 4.55 yuan per jin, and brown-shell eggs in the Guangzhou market were 4.9 yuan per jin, unchanged from the previous day. Mid-Autumn Festival stocking has ended, and with the National Day holiday approaching, trade stocking continues to weaken, with spot prices showing a stable-to-weak performance. Short-term futures prices are likely to remain range-bound. Pay attention to the impact of demand changes during the holiday on spot prices, as well as the impact of other market information on egg prices.

With the National Day long holiday approaching, commodity futures markets were mainly reducing positions because of higher futures margin requirements, and price volatility declined accordingly. At present, new grain arrivals in Northeast China are increasing, and arrivals at deep-processing enterprises from eastern Heilongjiang to the Suihua area have increased. Affected by the concentrated listing of new grain and limited outbound flows, grain sources concentrated toward local processing plants, buyers pushed prices down strongly, and short-term corn prices in Northeast China are likely to remain weak and range-bound.

During the Mid-Autumn Festival, corn prices in North China continued to decline. The region is still in the period of new corn listing, supply pressure remains, downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand, and the market still shows strong supply and weak demand. However, as corn harvesting is gradually completed, supply pressure will gradually ease, and corn prices are expected to have limited room for further sharp declines this week.

Corn market purchasing and sales activity in sales areas was dull, with arrivals mainly from previous orders. With only three days left before the National Day holiday, downstream stocking is nearing its end. Downstream enterprises are controlling raw material inventories and adjusting the ratio between alternative grains and corn. Overall, new grain arrivals are increasing, corn prices in North China are running weak, downstream demand is ordinary, and corn prices may find it difficult to improve significantly in the short term.

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