Since touching an intraday low of 2,938.07 points on June 22, the Hang Seng Healthcare Index (800804) has completed a three-month recovery run. Based on the intraday high of 4,018.32 points on August 26, the sector's maximum gain over that stretch reached 36.77%.

According to Zhitong Finance APP, HUTCHMED (00013) — a stock whose movements have been almost synchronized with the sector — also staged a strong rally during this period, climbing from an intraday low of HK$15.57 on June 22 all the way to an intraday high of HK$23.56 on September 30, a maximum gain of 51.32% over the period, clearly outperforming the index.

From Low-Level Price Repair to "Fundamental Confirmation"

From April 17 to June 22, under the dual impact of weak market sentiment and heightened short-selling pressure, HUTCHMED's share price at one point retreated by more than 35%. After June 22, however, the stock began to rebound, a move also highly correlated with the sector's performance over the same period.

Although overall capital flows in the Hong Kong stock market remained in net outflow at the time, the information technology and healthcare sectors maintained net inflows. Because the AI sector was still oscillating at high levels, some funds began looking for valuation depressions to rebalance assets. The healthcare sector, with both defensive and growth attributes, became an important destination for spillover capital. This also became one of the main reasons HUTCHMED's share price began to repair from low levels.

Driven by the sector-powered low-level repair logic, HUTCHMED's share price surged on July 16, simultaneously touching the 60-day moving average and the upper band of the BOLL line. Although the company's PE valuation at the time was only 4.55 times, well below the industry average of more than 20 times PE, and it remained in an oversold and undervalued state, the overheated short-term performance still caused a brief pullback after July 16, until the company disclosed its 26H1 financial report on July 30.

On July 30, HUTCHMED officially released its 2026 interim financial report. The report showed that the company achieved revenue of US$278 million for the period, up 0.22% year-on-year; net income attributable to shareholders was US$16.242 million, down 96.43% year-on-year.

The market's view of this interim report was clearly positive. On one hand, the sharp drop in book net profit was due to the one-off gain from the sale of a 45% stake in the company's prescription drug business (Shanghai Hutchison) in the same period last year. On the other hand, in this report, HUTCHMED confirmed favorable factors including the recovery of core product sales during the period, progress on the ATTC platform, later-stage clinical catalysts for savolitinib, and ample cash reserves.

Particularly on the business side, in the first half of this year, HUTCHMED's combined oncology and autoimmune product revenue reached US$162 million, up 13% year-on-year. Among these, fruquintinib outside the United States grew about 70% year-on-year, driving its global sales to US$185 million. In the domestic market, sales of fruquintinib and surufatinib grew 41% and 45% year-on-year, respectively. The growth performance of the innovative drug business also partly dispelled earlier market doubts about whether HUTCHMED could achieve steady growth after "weaning off" its prescription drug business.

In short, HUTCHMED's 26H1 financial report provided fundamental support of "commercialization recovery + cash safety + pipeline catalysts." This also accelerated the shift in market sentiment from divergence to consensus.

In fact, HUTCHMED's share price still closed down 1.34% the day after the financial report was disclosed, and the stock's trading volume that day expanded to about 2.78 times the average of the prior five days. This shows that after seeing the sharp drop in net profit, the market did not immediately price in "earnings beating expectations." At the same time, however, the long lower shadow that day also reflected that investors inside and outside the market, after confirming the support from HUTCHMED's interim results, accelerated their reassessment of its subsequent expectations, and this result was ultimately reflected on the trading board on August 7.

Zhitong Finance APP observed that on August 7, HUTCHMED's share price officially began its first volume-backed acceleration after the financial report disclosure. While the stock closed up 5.53%, its trading volume also reached 6.53 times the average of the prior five days, with the corresponding turnover rate rising to 1.25%. On August 17, the company's share price again closed up 4.64%, while volume further expanded to 6.76 times the average of the prior five days.

After Expectations Accelerate Toward Fulfillment, When Will the "Main Uptrend" Arrive?

From the trading action after the interim report, it is not difficult to see that the dominant logic behind HUTCHMED's share price rise in this round was not traditional revenue and profit growth, but the market's repricing of its subsequent BD expectations after confirming the support from the company's commercialization recovery. Therefore, investors can easily see that HUTCHMED's share price performance from July 30 to now has not been a continuous, steady climb, but rather included a pullback between August 19 and September 2.

From a news perspective, during the above period, HUTCHMED announced on August 28 and August 31 respectively the launch of the new drug Ailinda® (fanregratinib) and the latest research data for the combination therapy of Vorasidenib® and Tagrisso®, but this still could not stop the stock's pullback trend at the time. The company's share price even touched the lower band of the BOLL line at one point on September 2.

It was not until midday trading on September 3 that HUTCHMED issued an announcement stating that the company had reached a global collaboration with GSK on the preclinical project HMPL-A830. Under the agreement, HUTCHMED will receive US$110 million in upfront payment and total milestone payments of up to US$1.295 billion, plus sales-based royalties. It is worth noting that this project originated from HUTCHMED's independently developed ATTC platform, making it the first candidate drug discovered through this platform and licensed out externally.

After the announcement was disclosed, the market launched a revaluation of the value of HUTCHMED's ATTC platform that afternoon, and concentrated buying occurred: the company's intraday share price gain at one point reached 16.41%, before finally closing up 14.32%. In terms of volume, the company's trading volume that day reached 35.9795 million shares, about 6.97 times the average of the prior 20 days, with the corresponding OBV indicator rising to 44.3 million shares. Such price-volume performance showed that the direction of capital accumulation that day was consistent with the direction of the price breakout, which also indicated to a certain extent that the day's move was not simply an emotional impulse.

After disclosing the BD transaction with GSK, HUTCHMED also received updated research reports from multiple institutions on September 4, including Daiwa, Citi, CLSA and CICC. Among them, Citi raised its oncology/immunology product revenue forecast by 27% and lifted its target price from HK$36 to HK$39. Daiwa upgraded HUTCHMED's rating by two notches from "Hold" to "Buy," with a corresponding target price raised to HK$28.5.

However, although the above institutional judgments further strengthened HUTCHMED's short-term risk appetite, with the technical structure on the trading board clearly strengthening, HUTCHMED's share price instead showed a high-level divergence signal on September 4: it closed up only 3.02% that day, and trading volume fell to 18.364 million shares. This was immediately followed by a "five consecutive declines" in the share price and a subsequent repair-style rebound.

Zhitong Finance APP observed that on September 14, HUTCHMED's share price rebounded strongly again after the previous day's decline touched the middle band of the BOLL line, and then from that point to September 30 staged a rebound lasting about half a month.

But this does not mean HUTCHMED has entered a new main uptrend. Although HUTCHMED's intraday high on September 30 had broken above the previous high of HK$23.40 on September 4, its closing price that day of HK$23.00 was still below HK$23.40. This may indicate that real trapped positions and profit-taking pressure exist in the HK$23.40-HK$23.56 range. In addition, the company's trading volume on September 30 was only about 53.6% of that on September 4, and turnover was about 54.6% of September 4. Moreover, while the share price hit a new intraday high that day, the OBV indicator did not simultaneously make a new high.

The absence of sustained expansion in capital accumulation strength also verifies to a certain extent that in the current行情, large-scale follow-through from incremental capital has not yet appeared. Whether the stock can subsequently close above the previous high on expanded volume may become an important price-volume indicator for investors' technical assessment of whether HUTCHMED is likely to launch a new main uptrend.