According to research from consulting firm McKinsey, the greatest threat facing American workers over the next decade may not be an AI employment apocalypse. The bigger challenge could be how to help millions of people transition to new occupations.

According to a report released on Tuesday, by 2035, approximately 11 million Americans may need to change careers due to "AI replacement," equivalent to roughly 7% of the current US workforce. This means the number of American workers changing careers each year over the next decade could triple compared to previous levels of about 215,000.

McKinsey's analysis shows that for many people, this transition will be extremely difficult, with as many as six out of seven potentially requiring extensive retraining and facing income losses. Workers are not "interchangeable units," the report's authors noted. "Even if job opportunities are plentiful, if the skills, qualifications, work locations, or pay structures required for these positions differ from existing jobs, it could still leave millions unemployed."

McKinsey's research found that full-time employees most likely to need to change jobs are concentrated in three areas: office and administrative support, retail and sales, and transportation and logistics, including positions such as customer service representatives, cashiers, and warehouse workers. Many of these workers are lower-income employees, and the report predicts they are nearly eight times more likely to need to change careers compared to higher-income workers.