Meta's newly launched AI agent Muse is introducing fresh competitive pressure to online travel platforms. According to Truist, Muse poses a more significant potential threat to online travel agencies such as Expedia and Booking than earlier large language models, because it not only has travel planning capabilities but can also complete bookings directly. Truist believes that while the previous wave of generative AI products sparked concerns about the "restructuring of search and booking gateways," their actual impact on OTA booking share was relatively limited. Meta's situation is different, as the company possesses a massive consumer base, mature social and traffic gateways, and rich user data. If Muse can quickly gain users, it is more likely to change the way consumers search for and book travel products.

The real risk lies in whether the "gateway" is taken over by AI agents. One of the core advantages OTAs have long held is that when consumers book hotels, flights, and other travel products, they go directly to platforms like Expedia and Booking to complete searches, price comparisons, and transactions. If AI agents can handle the entire process for users, from understanding demand to product filtering to final booking, consumers may no longer need to go directly to traditional OTA platforms. This does not mean OTAs will necessarily lose transactions, because AI agents may still call Expedia's or Booking's inventory and interfaces to complete bookings. However, if the consumer gateway shifts to AI platforms like Muse, the OTA's position in user relationships, traffic acquisition, and bargaining power could change. Truist believes the real issue to watch is not whether Muse can help users book hotels, but whether booking share, commission levels, and the relationships between OTAs and hotels and airlines will be redistributed as a result.

Meta warrants more caution than previous AI platforms. Truist particularly emphasizes that the risk posed by Meta is higher than that of large language models that previously entered the travel space. The reason is that Meta itself possesses extremely strong consumer distribution capabilities. Its products cover a massive user base and command social, interest, and behavioral data, which can help Muse more easily understand user needs and embed travel recommendations into existing consumption scenarios. In addition, Muse's initial download performance has reinforced market concerns about its rapid expansion. Therefore, even though there is currently no data showing that Muse has clearly taken OTA orders, investors may preemptively reassess the long-term competitive moats of traditional online travel platforms.

Expedia faces higher risk exposure. Among the two major OTAs, Truist is more cautious on Expedia. Muse is currently launching first in the North American market, and Expedia's consumer business relies heavily on the US market, with about two-thirds of its B2C business coming from the United States. By comparison, US users account for only a low-teens percentage of Booking Holdings' overall booking population, with a higher proportion of international business. This means that if Muse quickly gains users in the US market first, the direct impact on Expedia could be more pronounced than on Booking.

Brand loyalty in the US travel market may provide a buffer. However, Truist also notes that the US travel market itself has some structural factors that can buffer the impact of AI agents. Many US hotels belong to large chain groups, and consumers often book directly through hotel websites, with some brands achieving direct booking rates of 70% to 80%. Hotels and airlines also have mature loyalty programs and co-branded credit cards that maintain customer stickiness through points, upgrades, and other benefits. OTAs themselves have also built loyalty programs. Therefore, even if AI agents change the search gateway, whether consumers are willing to give up existing brand points, membership benefits, and direct booking discounts remains an important variable. This also means that AI agents will not simply "eat" OTAs, but are more likely to reshape traffic distribution and commission relationships among different platforms.

Short-term sentiment impact first, long-term impact still to be verified. Truist believes it is currently impossible to determine how much financial impact Muse or other AI agents will ultimately have on OTAs. Whether booking share declines, whether commission rates come under pressure, and whether hotels and airlines will use AI platforms to bypass OTAs all require longer-term data to assess. But before real financial impact materializes, media attention, consumer testing, and how OTA management responds to these new platforms could all affect investor sentiment and stock prices first. Expedia announced last week via social media that it has integrated with Muse, but its CEO did not provide further details when asked about the partnership at the Skift Global Forum. Therefore, what the market is really trading on at this stage is not how many orders Muse has already taken, but a longer-term question: if AI agents gradually become the new gateway for travel bookings, how much user relationship and distribution value can traditional OTAs retain.